CPI slows down and BTC rallies

Thanks for tuning into another episode of the Trader's Chat. I'm here joined with Lou, our senior trader and our community manager. How you doing mate? Good mate, how are you? Oh, pretty good. It's nice to see some green in the market. Yeah, nice start to the year with some solid volatility. Pretty similar to last year when we traded big coin, when it broke that support level

of 40,000. So in today's episode we'll just run through some CPI data. We'll have a look at the Bitcoin chart and the total crypto market cap and we'll cover some NFTs as well. But before we get started, we've just got a quick word from Craig about a newer sponsor, BigGET. So take it away, Craig. Just a quick word from our sponsors, BigGET. Trader Cobb and BigGET

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systems, this is the premier platform for us going forward. Join up with the link in the description to get 10% off your trading fees. Let's kick things off with CPI that was released last week. The Fed announced that inflation had a huge amount of money. Slow down just a little bit from about 7.1% this time last year to 6.5. Which gives us the six months in

a row that we've had CPI slowing down a little bit. But for the past six months we've had interest rates continue to increase. It started off around 75 basis points per month. I think last month was 50 basis points. I would expect to see that the interest rates may ease off a little bit. Maybe we'll stay at 50 basis points. Potentially drop that down to 25.

What do you think, Lou? I think they're going to keep on raising rates. I think personally, I think that like so the last summer in this kind of regime was with Paul Volkmann. The last Fed chair in the 70s or 80s. One of those periods before our time certainly. He was in a similar situation to what the Federal to rope out the Federal Reserve is even

now. All central banks were in a really high inflation. He said that to break the back of inflation that had to raise rates a huge amount. I forgot which decade that was. The 70s or 80s were pretty sure. Instead of breaking the back of inflation, as inflation was coming down, he'd started hiking rates more. Everyone was like, what are you doing? Going to break the back

of inflation. Then we can roll rates and actually see it cooling off. Look, I'm not a macro guy. I just trade off the charts. But look, I want to be surprised to see interest rates. Rides a bit more. That's a good point. Their goal is 2% to 2% inflation. We're sitting at 6.5% year on year. So to get that down to 2%, yeah. I think that

rates are fair bit. They're going to hold interest rates stable and hope it keeps coming down slowly without blue. They're going out the unemployment rate. Or are they just going to go health leather and just bump those interest rates right up? Yeah. Get a load of random. Yeah, who knows. I mean, it's kind of, they kind of went health further. Last year didn't they? Well, yeah.

75 points every month. Four months in a row. Yeah. And look, I remember the beginning of last year or the beginning of last year where a lot of people were. Because we've been such a ball market inequities for such a long time. The fair is not going to raise rates. No matter what. They can't crush the market. And to me, what the Fed's shown in this

situation is. They don't care about the market. They don't care about dropping inflation. So I'll do whatever it takes to do that. And so. Yeah, see what happens. I care about cropping inflation and looking after the billionaire buddies. But I'm just a just to put that into perspective. We started off around June or July at 1% interest rate. It was around 1% around June July last

year. We ended the year at it was 4.5%. Right. So that's a huge increase over six month period. And to put that into perspective, if you had a million dollar house loan. The interest on that you were paying around 10. $10,000 for the year on a million dollar house loan. That's 1%. And now you're paying at least $45,000 on that same house loan six months later.

You know, for a 12 month period. Isn't that crazy. But that. That's the interest rates of the Fed, right. The banks. Sort of, but you know, do their own thing. So four. Sorry, 4.5% interest rate. For the Fed doesn't mean that that's what the banks are charging the banks are I think mine is around 6.35% at the moment, which started off at 3.75%. So that's a

huge increase. You know, like if you were. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. And you know, here in Sydney, you're very, very lucky to get a house for under a million dollars. And two years ago, it was probably two years ago. So many young people just by, you know, getting loans because the interest rates were so low, just getting loans, buying these houses, living in them. And now I

think we're really starting to see that that pain kick in where they can't afford to the repayments. Yeah. And it's compounded with inflation as well. So it costs a living. Oh, yeah. Nothing is higher is a lot higher. So yeah, all these things, all these things, all these, these things mixed together. And they're real. They're real. And I just felt in America or in the United

States or Australia, they felt all around the world in Asia, in Europe. Even even the lesser developed economies in South America and Africa like these, these effects are felt all right. And we're going around the world in inflation. So higher cost of living and, you know, high interest rates as well. Yeah, it's getting out of control. But let's just see what happens. There's nothing we can

do. They're just going to make their decisions and all we can do is not even really take it into account when it comes to trading. What we do is trade trade our charts. Yeah, no way. You can't take it to your full for us as trend traders that only follow the charts. You can't take any of that stuff into account because it's completely unpredictable. I don't

know anyone that's playing golf with drone power this weekend. Unfortunately, not maybe that's what it craves. Maybe that's great. But let's just have a look at the charts. Right. I'll bring up the SMP. So we can have a look. All right. So the SMP. Now this is not a weekly timeframe. So we can see since sort of the big beginning of the year, right, that's when

the SMP was at its peak. And we've just seen a really nice price action coming down creating lower lows and lower highs on this weekly timeframe. And now we're sort of in this funny range. Aren't we were we've created a lower high, but almost created a higher low. So what does that mean for you, Lou, and how would you trade this or would you just step

away? If I traded if I traded this exact weekly timeframe. I would be drawing a level probably at around just above 3933. So just the top across the top of those candles. Yeah, around there. Yeah, around there. Around 50. Yeah, yeah. Cool. So I draw a level in there. Because that seems like a lot of people are going to be looking at the top of the

screen. The next level of interest, let's say, the next level of where price could act as resistance. And then I'd be looking for a lower level. Maybe if you drop your cursor down a little bit further up. Yeah, like somewhere in that region. Yeah. In there. And I'll kind of be like trying to identify some type of weekly range. And then being like, look, if price

decides to jump out of this weekly range to the upside, then I might tick down to a few lower time frames like the daily and look at trying to capture that move, coming out the weekly range to the upside. If this was to turn into a lower high, instead of a higher low, I've been looking at price, retesting that range to the downside. That's how I

see that. Yeah, for sure. If, um, if anyone that, you know, just listening and not not watching the video, it's definitely worth jumping on trading view and checking out the SMP 500 chart on the weekly timeframe. Beautiful trend. You know, to the downside for the past six months, almost 12 months. Sorry. Um, and yeah, now we're just coming to that funny. To that funny sort of

price action where it's not really trending. It's in between trends. So if you are looking to trade the SMP, I'd probably check out that weekly chart. But, um, let's have a look at the Bitcoin dominance. You haven't, no, look at this. Like, look at that support level at around 40%. So 40% Bitcoin holds the dominance, the total crypto market cap. 40% it's just such a nice

support level. It's just bounced and rejected off that. And finally, you know, we've found a nice rejection at around September last year and just headed higher. We're more money is flying. We're going into Bitcoin unless, shouldn't say less into old, but the majority of funds are pouring into Bitcoin. Which is really interesting. And that's reflected in the, I'll bring up the Bitcoin chart. So on the

weekly timeframe. Yeah, it seems like a really good week. Last week. Even the week before we had a nice green week. I think Bitcoin closed up almost 22%. But on the grand scheme of things, if you want to see the screen, I think it's going to be a good idea. Zoom out and look at the weekly chart. That's not a huge candle. You know, it's big,

but it's not huge. We've seen much larger candles. Um, in the country. I'd be interested with that weekly chart there. Um, that's the first. Like this doesn't mean anything. But that's the first, um, you know, green candle. We've seen that weekly chart pushing out of the cradle zone. We've seen that for a whole year. Well, yeah, that's a really good point. What's this last one here?

March, last year. So yeah, almost 12 months. The first weekly bullish candle that is out of those moving averages. Yeah. Um, still, you know, sorry. We're talking about the week. Yeah. Nothing. Not the job. This. No, this is the weekly Bitcoin chart. So we're still not out of his downtrend. Still haven't really broken this previous hire. Um, or create a new new low sort of just

crowd walking sideways. So I'm watching. Yeah. Sorry. What was that? Oh, you like to talk about the potential of a fair market rally? I think this is it. Oh, yeah. Yeah. So what we, what we've been talking about in the community is and actually didn't webinar on it around this time last year. Um, this February, a large about, um, one of the characteristics of the fair

market. Uh, that's a big deal. So really vicious bear market rallies. And so, um, the bear market rallies I, I read last year in crypto or Bitcoin, actually, I sometimes larger, uh, most of the time, larger on intraday basis than the out of three bull market. So they can be savage. And they drew everyone in and then taking down like if you look at that rally,

that last rally we had in the week on the weekly up around March. Um, I think that's a big deal. Last year. Um, I'm not sure what, what, what, I mean, what percentage is that like from, so they've been getting you that rally to the end. Let's have a look. Let's say from the bottom of these weeks. That's a 45% rally. Yeah. And what, what, what,

what about just from the bottom of the two, um, the two green camps? Yeah. Yeah. Like around there. 30 is 20. 30% rally. That's huge. So that's a 30% in two weeks. Yeah. I think so 30% in two weeks. So that's a massive rally to get people. Uh, and look, sucks. Everyone in at 40,000. And then look what happened. Ball, baby. Just what does that line

up with that monthly candle? Yeah, it does. So that's when I remember that monthly. And I remember I was being in the community then. Um, and we had that upper level on the weekly. About 44, 45,000. Let's say you give or take. And we just saw that. Some people call like a double top formation. Under that level. We got a lot of people. Um, I think

has regained the range that we fill from an entire one of the largest crypto exchanges collapsing. And one of the biggest fraudulent activities in the last decade. Oh, like the last century. Like a century FTX was like FTX was the second biggest exchange. Like it's slightly more interesting. FTX was the second biggest exchange. And we've just made back that whole whole whole move just. In four

days. Flucked out a lot of people. Unfortunately, you know, you and I both know people that have walked away from crypto forever. Because they got one. It flushed out us as well. Flushed out us. Yeah. But, you know, the difference between us and the people that walked away as that we're back and we're seeing. We're going to be able to value in Bitcoin. And we're in

it for the long term. Yeah. Yeah. And fortunately, look, we're, we still had funds. We still had enough funds left to trade. The end of the day as well. We did lose a lot. Yeah. One thing I worry about is the people that did walk away. And they see. Some nice price action coming back into Bitcoin. And we start hitting the 30,000, the $40,000 marks. And

then they. They throw them away. And you know, maybe we've just got sucked into a beer market rally. We just don't know. You don't that's right. Yes. You don't know what's there. Mac rally, what's not. Just any other early. But I tell you what, that's a very nice level. There are the weekly just quickly. If you are just raising cuss. Yeah, somewhere around there. That is

a very precise level through there. I would be watching that with pretty, pretty. With evil eyes. We get to throw it out on it. Yes, sorry, for those that aren't watching, it's around the twenty one thousand, twenty one thousand five hundred dollar mark. If we flip down to the daily, let's have a look at the daily chart. This is really interesting. Look at that for a

rally. Just consecutive green days. And then, you know, the one red day that we did have was Sula Bullish candle. Yeah. If we take that level at twenty one thousand eight hundred and four. If we take that level, we're going to see some more upside over again. Yes, we will bring it like we did to those people. Those lower levels. That's a trump case. definitely the

price rains that. We're watching. Not me. Not really looking to take any long trades. I'm Bitcoin at the moment. Not with that sort of price range up ahead. We're just waiting to see how price interacts with that level. And whether we see nagyon money you can go to TV demonstrations. We can take a month, a world reserve pool back back into those cradle zones before another

shot higher. Maybe that doesn't come. We're not. We get a rejection. That's right. We get a rejection effect. We'll get sure. Yeah, that's right. We're not here to try and predict the future. To predict what Bitcoin's going to do and base our trading around that whether it's going to go up and you know reject off this. you know, we get a similar idea afrug vr food

market we're hoping we can military fail to get from all these things. So don't get too much on any socialization! We go to Bitcoin. It's going to be less than 100% of people. We're not going to promise in order to do both. Lewyley's We're not out of the woods just yet. The weekly charges are just sideways. No real high highs or low highs or low lows.

We just grab walking sideways but we do have a major level up ahead around the 16,000 lm arc that's the previous high and that's what we're keeping an eye on for Ethereum. Do you have any points to add on how we're approaching the charts this week, Lewyley? I just rinse and repeat, though. Looking at those major levels, price breaks out through those major levels. We try

and trade through those levels, go off of them and then looking for cradles when there's actual momentum in the markets. So the last Thursday, Friday, Saturday, that was a really good environment for technically cradles and a few pieces on low timeframes. You feel that way in client? And so that's what I'm looking for. Just the right environment and flexing using the right strategies for the right

environment. Last week was definitely the weaf cradles. Even breakouts. Breakouts were setting up and break and crew but yeah, I think fibruids were a good strategy to use. And for anyone that's listening, if you're not in the community, you should definitely check it out. We do have a free community like head in on Discord. Just head to our website to find out more. I believe it's

in the link or use the link in the description below this video as well. So that's it for charts. Let's before we wrap things up. I just wanted to talk about a few NFT projects. Oh, straight. Just quickly. Yeah, let's have a look at the Dixie. Actually, yeah, this is one of the things that we're looking for. One that you did want to talk about the

Dixie, the US dollar index. So if we, yeah, let's bring it up on the monthly, that monthly level, the monthly level. Look at that. Look, the reason we've been talking about this a lot in the community. This is kind of a look at a long life trading floor. And it's really interesting. So we've been following this chart for ages. And we saw price pulling into this

really established monthly level. And then long behold, the S&P 500 breaks the supper range. Starts trading. And the Dixie breaks its major. So the Dixie, which is the strength of the US dollar, breaks its monthly support. At the same time as we're breaking out in crypto and in S&P 500. Now, I don't look for correlations. No, at all. But this is a wonderful chart to trade.

This would have been if I was trading for you, should this would have been a great chart to trade trading somehow trading that break of that monthly level to the downside. Because look at this. This is like a, it's like a textbook. It's like a textbook. It's like a huge rally out. Monthly support broke in. This is all we're, well, this is quite bullish, I think,

for our markets. Like you have a week in US dollar. And a bit of risk being put on inequities as well. And so, you know, a week of dollars always, always better for those teachers contract. Yeah, definitely. I think it's definitely worth keeping an eye on the US dollar index. You cover it every morning in the live trading floors. But yeah, it's, it's, it's interesting now

to see how the US dollar is interacting with the crypto markets. So we never used to really pay attention to it. But now, the S&P and the Dixie are really, you know, the crypto market is. So we're going to be able to go through the flow with those other two markets, which I believe just shows how much institutional money is in the crypto space at the

moment. Yeah, 100%. And I'll put it, I'll put a crazy thought out there and everyone said, OK, let's say, let's say the Federal Reserve doesn't raise interest rates anymore. Let's, let's say the next Fed interest rate and answer is lower like you said, wouldn't these two charts be a bit lower than the last one? So a rally, S&P and a US dollar and a US dollar

and a stronger Bitcoin almost preamp that move. Definitely. Yeah. So let's see what I'd say first. No more interest rates. No more interest rates. Let's just see how that plays out. I think it's going to be a very interesting year. We don't like to predict. But I, in this case, I think we'll see interest rates continue to increase for the remainder of this year for easing

to, you know, Q, maybe Q4 of this year. And some more money flowback into traditional markets. And that leading right into the Bitcoin halving that everyone likes to talk about, which is happening in 2024. And we do see some some credit. So it's a crazy price action leading into a Bitcoin halving through. I think this year is going to be an interesting year, but next year,

an even bigger one, which is really exciting. It's just time to sort of DCA back into the market after the FTX collapse. For sure. It's going to be awesome here. And just start the year like we have now is just great. What's better way to start the year with some, you know, some long, some long trades to get you back into it after a little break.

It's a good price action. Yeah. Welcome. So, I'm going to give you a little bit of confidence. That's right. It's a really positive way to start the year. All right. So that's it for the charts. If you again, if you're listening on the podcast, then feel free to jump on YouTube and watch this so you can see what we're talking about on the charts. But the

next project that I wanted to talk about was an NFT project, Game of Thrones. One I was really, really excited about. I thought it was going to be amazing. Big Game of Thrones fans. Have you watched the loop? No, I want to see original ones a little bit. Yeah, we can't be friends. But yeah, a drop that I was really excited about. And it was a

complete failure. Believe it, Lord, just on the marketplace on Nifty. I'll just bring up a like was was it why was it a failure like? Well, you've seen some NFT projects. You know, I'm not sure if you're going to be able to see it. Now what NFTs look like, you know, good ones, you know, bad ones look like. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So we saw go look

at this. This is. If I zoom in here. Look at the hands on this block. It's like that. That's just. So into for 2023. Yeah. Yeah. A few words in an AI generator would produce a bit of NFT than that. I don't know. 100% yeah, it's just crazy. If you're. It's not. It's definitely worth just googling the Game of Thrones NFT drop. It did sell out,

which was a surprise. But I believe when it sold out, you were you're buying it pack. And they revealed later on. So it would have been a rude surprise getting something. Like this in your pack. So you first sold out. Does that mean everyone's trying to sell it now? Because they're pretty average or. It depends on the. Like what's behind the project and what the what

the roadmap looks like. I haven't looked into it too much. I was pretty disappointed by this one. So I haven't looked into it too much. But I imagine there's a lot of people in the same boat as me, but just turned off. The next one was Moonbirds. One that I really like. They've just. So what they're doing is they built the Moonbirds brand around Web 3.

They've just signed a talent agency in Hollywood to sort of get that brand outside of Web 3 and to every one. And so it's a really big step for the Web 3 space and the proof collective and Moonbirds as well. I'm. I believe you go labs done the same thing. You go labs up behind the board at your club. So yeah, just a bit of an

update on some energy projects. This time last year going back to any key time. There was a land sale for board at your clubs. Wasn't around this time of year. Yeah, I think there's a little bit earlier. I was a bit earlier. Sorry. A bit later. Sorry. And the hysteria behind that yeah, yeah, so much hysteria around the crazy people. I mean, yeah, the Yeah, the

other one of the NFTs space, by the way, I think it's awesome. There's a really cool project. Yeah, really cool projects. One that we really like is the Huxley Sargo. Yeah, Huxley's awesome. We're not sort of trying to promote it, but it is just a cool project. Don't be worth checking out. Yeah, for sure. I'm really excited about the NFTs space that it's sort of boomed.

I shouldn't say boomed. It's flourished during the downfall of FTX. Some projects are still doing really great things, raising capital as well. So if we do have a nice bull run in the markets, I can see the NFTs space really as well. Yeah, and people just attracted to NFTs. I don't know, there's not a lot of attraction to it. Everyone loves it. Can you see it?

See them being the the future of art? Instead of people having expensive paintings on the wall, maybe have a digital frame. I've been looking at Twitter. I was looking at Twitter the other day was showing the history of art and how I said, this house was built in 1780 by like the literary peasants. It's just like a really beautifully built sandstone cottage. And then it goes

this building was built in like the 1940, like 1930s, it's like an architectural wonder. And it shows like the Empire State Building for Eiffel Tower. Things like this. Then it goes, these are the skyscrapers built now. And they're just like the, they don't resemble anything to what art used to be. Nothing like they just let these huge boxes or bunkers. And art's the same. You know,

you look at Michelangelo and the famous paintings of gods and humans and portraits and everything you know, you look at art today. You know, you can buy, you're buying a rubber. Yeah. And then most NFTs are rubbish. And they're not, I don't believe they're not, they are at least the digital art is a natural transformation forward. Yeah. It makes a lot of sense to me. That's

why I'm in the space. I believe it is the next step for art and collectors. It's the digital. You know, collect it. And that way no one can, I mean, you can just take a screenshot of an NFT, but you're not the real owner. You know, like the real owner is on the blockchain. Everyone, you know, you can see who owns that original piece. Yeah. Or

let's like, what do you think is so special about Huxley? Why do you like Huxley so much? It hasn't used case. And that's what I think a lot of projects don't have. They're just silly pictures or. And what's it's used case in two sentences or less? Well, one, the founder behind Huxley has a good history. He's a great artist that's behind some Marvel movies. And two,

he's creating a movie. Yeah. Sure. And if you're a game and he was behind creating, he was one of the lead devs on Halo, cool Judy. Yeah. All these, all this cold, cool era games, I guess you call them. So yeah. Yeah. He's developing a video game for his particular thing. Well, that was a race that I bought. And Huxley comics and advertisers, if this does

take off, like if this is a, a seriously a good movie, then I own one of a thousand robots that he's created. There's only going to be a thousand. Yeah. How cool is that? Imagine if this was the next say Star Wars. You know, it may not be. It could be. But you also in the comics. Yeah. I imagine it feels a thousand. And then you

were the one that owned Obi-Wan. Yeah. Yeah. How cool would that be? Yeah. Awesome. I just think it would be cool. Also, with Huxley, remember, you went into the top. The first comic they released was went into one of the highest selling comics of all time. Yeah. The issue one. Yeah. And then you know, I'm going to be a little bit more honest. A few things.

Use case. I think use case is mixing there with the NFTs. But doesn't it? Yeah. So I wouldn't touch it. I wouldn't say that I'm an expert in the NFC space. I have poked around a little bit. I know a few projects. I don't think you're an expert either. Directly. Yeah. I just think that the space has most projects have a good use case. And now

with the crypto space, sort of tightening up a little bit, it's probably harder for people just to create an NFT project with no use case and expect people to buy it. There was a time and a place for that. And that was early last year, maybe the end of the year before. I don't think that's happening anymore. Yeah. Kind of what the ICF is. Yeah. And

then I can't do anything. Yeah. That's right. All right. So that's it for today. Let's wrap it up. Thanks for joining Lou. Thanks for having me. Yeah. Thanks for listening. I hope you'll have a great day. We'll chat with you guys next week.