Wall Street expert forecasts S&P 500 will hit a new high, but not this year

GETTING ITS GROOVE BACK AFTER ALL? LET'S GET TO OUR FLOOR SHOW JOINING ME NOW T 3 TRADING CHIEF STRATEGIC OFFICER SCOTT REDLER AND UBS MANAGING DIRECTOR JASON KATZ. GREAT TO HAVE YOU BOTH ON SET BY THE WAY. SCOTT LET'S START WITH TECH. THE BIG SEVEN AS WE CALL THEM. THIS HAS BEEN THE STORY FOR THE RALLY. A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE FOMO, THEY DON'T WANT TO

MISS THE TECH RALLY BUT NOW THE WORD IS OVER VALUED. >> WE'VE BEEN HEARING A LOT AGAINST THE TECH RALLY SINCE IT STARTED IN MARCH. IT'S A BROKEN BOUNCE. IT'S A BEAR MARKET BOUNCE BUT MEANWHILE, 20% OFF THE LOWS, THEY STILL SAID IT COULDN'T CONTINUE AND ITS BEEN STRONG AND THERE'S BEEN GREAT ROTATION. YOU HAD MEGA CAP TECH SEMICONDUCTORS, WE'VE HAD ACTUALLY SOME MOMENTUM NAMES SHOWING

MOMENTUM WHETHER IT WAS TESLA, NVIDIA, NOW YOU HAVE APPLE AT ALL TIMES HIGHS. APPLE IS AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH. IT'S NOT A BROKEN BEAR MARKET BOUNCE. IT'S CREATING WEALTH AND A GREAT TRADE FOR TRADERS. I DO THINK AFTER THAT SEVEN DAY DECLINE WE JUST SAW, THAT SOME TRADERS ARE TRYING TO RESHUFFLE A LITTLE BIT TO GET MORE ALPHA SO THEY ARE TRYING TO GO MORE INTO

THE EQUAL WEIGHT S&P. SOME ARE LOOKING TO SEE IF THE SMALL CAPS COULD PLAY SOME CATCH UP SO WE MIGHT HAVE HAD OUT PERFORMANCE IN TECH SO NOW MAYBE WE COULD HAVE THEM CONTINUE BUT THERE MIGHT BE ALPHA ELSEWHERE. >> THERE'S A REBALANCING GOING ON, BUT WE'RE LOOKING AT NVIDIA BACK IN MAY. YOU LIKED NVIDIA BUT A LOT OF QUESTION MARKS NOW ABOUT IS THAT TRADE

KIND OF OVER, YES OR NO, REAL QUICK. >> I DON'T THINK IT'S OVER BUT IT'S NOT GOING UP AS MUCH AS IT DID THE LAST SIX MONTHS. >> A NICE RUN UP. JASON LET'S TALK ABOUT THE MACROSTORY 4 TRILLION ON THE SIDELINES RIGHT NOW AND YOU KNOW, A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SITTING IN CASH MAKING MONEY IN CASH JUST BECAUSE CASH IS PAYING BETTER THAN

IT DID A YEAR AGO. >> FIVE-PLUS PERCENT. I CAN'T BEGIN TO TELL YOU HOW MANY CLIENTS IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR SAID TO ME, WHY DON'T WE TAKE SOME EQUITIES OFF THE TABLE. WE COULD FINALLY GET A RETURN ON CASH AND THAT'S FINE AND DANDY FOR YOUR CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS BUT LOOK AT WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IN TERMS OF THE S&P RELATIVE TO THAT

5% RETURN ON CASH. THE MARKETS UP 25% OFF THE BOTTOM. CASH HAS BEEN THE MOST CROWDED TRADE. NOW, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE THAT MONEY ROTATE AS SCOTT POINTED OUT INTO OTHER PARTS OF THE MARKET. S&P EQUALLY. SMALL CAP, AND I DEFINITELY THINK THAT'S WHERE THE SECOND HALF YOU'RE GOING TO SEE RETURNS I DON'T THINK PEOPLE ARE GOING TO ABANDON PER SE WHAT TOOK THEM TO THE

PARTY BUT THOSE SEVEN NAMES, THE S&P, YOU KNOW, 10, IS NOT WHAT'S GOING TO TAKE YOU HOME FOR THE PARTY. IT'S THE S&P 490 THAT WILL. >> YEAH, YOU KNOW, ALSO TOO, SCOTT, YOU'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT GDP. WE COULD HAVE AN ECONOMY THAT'S GETTING 1% TO 2% GDP GROWTH. I'M ASSUMING THAT'S IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR SO MAYBE RECESSION IS OFF THE TABLE ,

BUT -- >> WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT NORMALIZATION. WE SPOKE MONTHS AGO WHEN EVERYONE SAID ARE WE HAVING A SOFT LANDING OR HARD LANDING AND NORMALIZE BACK TO 2% GDP AND ALSO INTEREST RATES MAYBE WITH A 4.5-5.5 CEILING INSTEAD OF FREE MONEY EVERY EVERYWHERE WHICH CAUSED THE INFLATION SO THAT TAKES TIME TO WORK THROUGH AND WE SAW THE ECONOMIC NUMBERS THIS MORNING. THEY ARE STILL STRONG. SO

ALL "THE TALK" ABOUT RECESSION AND SLOWDOWN IT'S TAKING TIME TO FILTER THROUGH. IT'S DOING IT SLOWLY BUT MAYBE WE'RE NORMALIZING AND CONSOLIDATING A 10-YEAR BULL MARKET IN THE PAST TWO YEARS OF SIDEWAYS ACTION THAT COULD CONTINUE AND I DO THINK THE S&P COULD PROBABLY MAKE A NEW HIGH IN THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO PROBABLY NOT THIS YEAR THOUGH. >> AND THE LABOR MARKETS BEEN COOLING JASON

AND WE KNOW THAT, BUT YOU SEEM TO BE IN THE CAMP THAT MAYBE THIS ISN'T GOING TO REALLY WORSEN TOO MUCH MORE. WE HAD THOUGHT WE WERE GOING TO SEE THE JOB NUMBERS COMING IN EVERY MONTH AND THEY WERE GOING TO FALL OFF A CLIFF AND THEY REALLY HAVEN'T. >> THEY HAVE CHARACTERIZED THE STOCK MARKET AS THE ENERGIZER BUNNY BUT IT'S ACTUALLY THE JOB MARKET THAT

IS. THOSE GETTING LAID OFF ARE EASILY FINDING NEW JOBS. SO THE SOFT LANDING NARRATIVE IS DEFINITELY BACK ON THE TABLE AND WHAT'S DIMINISHING IS THIS HARD LANDING THAT EVERYONE THOUGHT WAS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. IT'S THE RECESSION THAT NEVER WAS. NOW, LET'S NOT GET CARRIED AWAY HERE. THE FATE OF THIS MARKET TRUTHFULLY LIES IN THE HANDS OF A FEW INDIVIDUALS, CHAIRMAN POWELL IN PARTICULAR. IF THEY GO

ANOTHER HALF A POINT, SO BE IT. I THINK THE MARKET HAS DISCOUNT ED IT. THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG DO THEY STAY? AND THE LONGER THEY STAY, THE MORE LIKELY WE WILL GET THAT RECESSION BUT AGAIN, SCOTT MADE THIS POINT EARLIER. WE JUST MIGHT HAVE MUTED ECONOMIC RETURNS, NOT NECESSARILY FALLING OFF A CLIFF BECAUSE WE'VE HAD ROLLING RECESSIONS, SO WHEN THE REAL ONE HITS, IT MAY

A.I. TRADE, PICK OTHER SECTORS. >> LIKE YOU SAID IT'S EVERYWHERE. IT'S NOT JUST NVIDIA. IT'S NOT JUST THE SYMBOLS A.I. IT'S EVERYWHERE. META IS TALKING ABOUT IT. AMAZON IS TALKING ABOUT IT. GOOGLE IS TALKING ABOUT IT. BAIDU CAME OUT AND SAID THEY HAVE A BETTER SEARCH SO IT'S ADDING TRILLIONS TO THE BALANCE SHEET OF A LOT OF COMPANIES SO IT'S ADDING TO SOME OF THE JUICE

TO THE STOCK MARKET SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE SPECIFIC IN A.I. BUT YOU SAID HOW DO YOU INVEST? I'VE BEEN TRYING TO TALK ABOUT MULTIPLE TIMEFRAMES. OKAY? IF YOU'VE BEEN INVESTING AND PUTTING MONEY INTO THE S&P EVERY SINGLE MONTH, 401 CAN, YOU'RE GOING TO WIN OVERTIME. THAT'S 7% A YEAR THE BULL MARKETS WIN IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN I HAVE A SON WHOSE 14. A 529

HIS NAME IS CHASE. EVERY MONTH I'M TRYING TO PUT MONEY IN THERE SINCE HE'S FIVE. I STARTED A LITTLE LATE THAT WILL HOPEFULLY PAY FOR COLLEGE AND WHAT WE DO IS WE INVEST FOR A LIVING, SO YOU HAVE TO BE VERY SPECIFIC. YOU HAVE TO KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING. YOU HAVE TO BE WATCHING YOU GUYS TO STAY ON TOP OF EVERYTHING AND SEE WHERE THE MONEYS FLOWING.

MONEYS BEEN IN TECH. VERY HOT. AS SOON AS EVERYONE STARTS TALKING ABOUT THE BEST CERTAIN OR EIGHT IT CHANGES LIKE JASON SAID TO MAYBE THE NEXT 490 SO YOU HAVE TO KEEP CONTINUING TO DO YOUR WORK. >> THAT'S WHY PEOPLE SHOULD WATCH FOX BUSINESS, JASON, BECAUSE WE ARE GIVING YOU INVESTMENT IDEAS AND I THINK THIS INFLECTION POINT NOW, BECAUSE YOU KNOW THE FIRST HALF OF THE

YEAR IS ENDING. SECOND QUARTER IS ENDING, AND MAYBE YOU'VE GOT A LITTLE VOLUME SITUATION BUT I THINK WE ALL THOUGHT THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR WAS GOING TO BE ROUGH AND IT WAS GOING TO BE A TOUGH MARKET AND YOU'VE GOT THE NASDAQ UP 29%. >> FIRST OF ALL EVERYONE CAME INTO THE YEAR SAYING TOUGH FIRST HALF, WE'LL SEE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE

TUNNEL THE SECOND HALF. EVERYONE GOT THAT WRONG, SO I DO THINK EQUAL WEIGHT AND I DO THINK SMALL CAP BUT I'LL TAKE IT ONE STEP FURTHER. INSTEAD OF STOCKS HOW ABOUT PREFERRED STOCKS? PREFERRED STOCKS BASICALLY ARE LIKE BONDS. THEY ARE HYPER-RATE SENSITIVE AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF PREFERRED STOCKS ARE ISSUED BY BANKS SO A DOUBLE WHAMMY. THAT INDEX IS DOWN 15%. YOU COULD BUY THAT HERE,

GET AROUND THE 7% RETURN, AND IF IN FACT WE DO HAVE A SOFTISH LANDING AND WE'RE AT PEAK INFLATION, AND WE DON'T HAVE MORE SVB'S OR SIGNATURE BANKS WHICH I DON'T THINK WE WILL BECAUSE THE BANKS BY AND LARGE ARE WELL-CAPITALIZED YOU CAN GET THE 7% RETURN AND A CATCH-UP FROM THAT 15% DECLINE, SO THAT'S A LITTLE OUTSIDE THE CONVENTIONAL STOCKS AND BONDS SOMEWHERE IN THE

MIDDLE IS PREFERRED STOCKS. >> IT'S AN INTERESTING THEME, I THINK, AND WE'RE ALL LOOKING FOR DIFFERENT WAYS TO INVEST IN PARTICULAR. WHO THOUGHT A MONEY-MARKET ACCOUNT WAS GOING TO LOOK GOOD. RIGHT NOW IT DOE