Episode 182 - It's Crypto Winter. What Do I Do Now

I did not sell it at $10,000. I lost half my money and I'm not touching crypto again in my life. Between these extremes, there are other people that are asking, what do we do now? I can't invest in ICOs because none of them are doing well. I don't know which ones are good, which ones are not good. It looks like most of the retail investors have

chilled down and they're no longer investing. It's been taken over by the big guys, the founders are investing. The institutional investors are investing, the H&I's are investing more. At least that's what the reports seem to say that 56% are coming from bigger VCs, but crypto so much that I hear predictions like by the end of 2018, it'll be $65,000. Maybe they're right, but I'll be damned.

I'll be surprised if it goes up so quickly, so fast. I seriously doubt it. On the other hand, I'm also not for the Doomsday predictors saying, oh, end of crypto, it's going to die. Completely, it's dead. It's gone. I think there is an inherent value in bitcoin. I think it's the first time that we have a weather. We've had an alternative to gold and it's being

called digital gold. It's the first store of value of relevance, that's sensible technology and has sustained about 10 years without being broken down. Yeah, sure. Just like the dollars in the wallet, bitcoin in your wallet can be stolen and it has happened too many times to even mention. But then let's look at something interesting, something useful. Let's look at what was the performance of Bitcoin? If

you look at a first significant moment, it was that came around November of 2013. November 2013, it was $12,122.87. Now it might have reached plus or minus, but somewhere around $1,000, $1,200 is the highest it reached ever. And that was like, wow, market cap of $13 billion. And that was in four years after it was launched and people were going gargoyle and crazy and then it

collapsed, it collapsed and collapsed. All the way down to $215.00 or so that I'm able to see. Maybe it fell to more than that, but I don't know. Yeah, and it fell all the way to $215.00 and how long did it take to fall to that? While there was $2,000, February 2015. So if you take a look at this, so it took November 2013 to 2015,

all the way to $2,000. Yeah. January 2015. So you can see that it took about one year plus another three months, about 15 months to reach the ladder after that $1200. Okay. So what is likely to happen? Well, first of all, if it falls to a fifth, all right, or almost a sixth, it just still not be a surprise. So what is the fifth of $2,000?

$20,000 is divided by five, about $4,000. I don't know if it will. Maybe their resistance is much better. It's been around $6,000, $7,000 for several months now. So maybe it'll stay there. Maybe it'll go down to $4,000. Maybe, maybe yes. I don't know. But the point is it could. And that's what it did before. And it was a full four years from November of 2013. All

the way to, I think, May, almost four years later, 2017 last year, right? Was when it reached that $1200 limit and went over it all the way to $20,000. Really? Yeah. It seemed insane when Mount Gawds was robbed and things collapsed and $200. People thought that was the end of Bitcoin. You could see all the rooms there. If it actually was not that loud because not

too many people were in Bitcoin for you to hear the crypto winter that happened once before. Oh, crypto winter happened before. Yeah. It happened in the middle of a forest where nobody was looking, nobody was hearing. So nobody knew about it. But this time, a much larger audience is looking at it. Therefore, this time, crypto winter is getting a much more attention than it did before.

So my suspicion is this one. We last about three to four years as well. It could be two to three years because it might come back sooner because of the amount of institutional interest. I don't believe it's going to be back up in January of 2019 at $20,000 or $60,000. Some aggressive predictors are predicting. Now we could go down to zero from here as something to

say, that the next seven months are, I think a more balanced perspective is if January of 2018 is when it hit $20,000, $20,000, $20,000, $20,000, $20,000, $20,000, $20,000, $20,000, $20,000, $20,000, $20,000. Maybe $60,000 this time. Yeah. You think you're crazy enough to believe that? Yeah. That would be 10 times your money almost. Right? Seven times your money over the next four, five years. That's crazy. So

that's why I'm looking at this. So I'm looking at this. If it's going to be 20,000, $20,000, $20,000, $20,000. I think the next four years that's what the next four years we're looking at is 20,000, $20,000, $20,000, $20,000. Maybe $40,000, $20,000. Maybe $ calling this a Black Friday sale of Bitcoin. Can't are you recommending heck now? It's your money. I have no advisor. I have no

financial certifications to advise you. You should do your own research. I could be completely wrong and you could lose all your money. Sadly, you cannot come back to me. But I'm just telling you what I believe in because people talk about this all the time. Hey, what do you believe in Bitcoin? What do you think will happen to Bitcoin? And opinion is a dime. It doesn't.

But you got one more. But at least mine is based on some simple logic. Go to coin market cap.com. Type Bitcoin and look at all the data so far. And you will see what I just said and evaluate and see. And maybe before that, it happened before that it might have happened also. I don't know how many times it hit a peak and then collapsed. I'm

just looking at one more crazy curve here where it hit $134 in May 26th of 2013. And it fell all the way to $70. Probably not much. So less than 50% drop. So yeah, I'm sure you could find other similar loops. But I definitely found one big fall to a fifth of the price, four years later, peak to peak, it went back up to 1200 and

beyond. Will it take four years? Will it take three years? Or as all these aggressive guys are saying, will it only take end of this year? Very unlikely. I think it'll take three to four years to go back up to 20,000. That's my take. But that's just a guess. Or as always, do your own research before your best. And if you do indeed invest, may only

invest the money that you can afford to lose. All the best, my friends. Thanks for listening to the Crypto 9. Never miss an episode. Subscribe now at www.crypto9s.io.