Bitcoin Halving Price Prediction [explained]

In today's video, I want to discuss the topic of the Bitcoin having. Is the Bitcoin having even still relevant? Now, with the massive market crash that we have seen over the last few weeks, not as many people are talking about the Bitcoin having anymore, but you know what? Bitcoin, as always, really doesn't care about its value versus the US dollar. And those blocks, they just keep

coming every 10 minutes. In the Bitcoin having, it just keeps getting closer and closer by the block. Now, with all of the upsets that we've seen in the market over the last few weeks, I want to really dig in and explore what we might be able to expect from the Bitcoin having this time around. Will it play out according to those historical trends? Or are we

in for a big surprise? The crypto, this is where you subscribe for all of the hottest and all of the latest happening in this crazy, crazy place that we call crypto land. By the way, the crypto.com debit card is now shipping to the UK and will be shipping very soon across all of the EU. It's already available for people in the USA, New Zealand and Australia.

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days away. So soon, so soon, I can't believe it. Now, when the Bitcoin having happens, a rather unexciting bit of code executes that results in the total amount of Bitcoin produced in each block, being cut from 12.5 down to 6.25. Or the total daily emission of Bitcoin down from 1800 to 900 Bitcoin. But well, the event itself is likely to be a little fat and nothing

burger. It is the price speculation in the lead up to this event that gets everyone so gosh darn excited. Obviously, we have to discuss the impact that's going to have the miners as well. And obviously, people are really looking past the Bitcoin having to see where the price might go when that daily emission rate gets going. But I want to start this conversation off by talking

about Bitcoin miners. Currently, the price for miners to be profitable, approximately around $5,000. That's the average globally obviously some have a cheaper and more expensive. But when the Bitcoin having happens, it's going to need to be $10,000 per Bitcoin for most of these miners to be profitable. Even the cheapest miners are going to need Bitcoin to be around $8,000. And that's of course running the latest

generation machines. The older generation of Bitcoin mining machines are almost categorically unprofitable at these prices for most miners and they have been shut off, which is clearly evidenced by the massive drop in hash rate that we've seen over the last few weeks. We have dropped 45% down from 136 to 75 million. Tara hashes a second. Now, if prices do not recover significantly in the near future,

then we can expect the hash rate to fall even further. And this is all before the Bitcoin having even happens. Post-having, if prices do not see a very significant increase, then we could indeed see another big drop in the hash rate since basically all of the older generation machines will be completely unprofitable at that point, even for the miners that can get the cheapest power. Now,

what does this mean for the Bitcoin network? Well, short term, it means the Bitcoin network will be less secure. That being said, it is still mind-bogglingly secure. But the crisis is really, really putting a pinch on Bitcoin miners at this time because they're having real, real trouble getting their hands on the latest equipment out of China. Bitmain, for example, they just released a new 100 Tara

hash Bitcoin miner, which is a massively powerful machine. But many people are not going to be able to have access to those machines. Thanks to the ongoing pandemic, and the slowdown in the global supply chains. Now, with the Bitcoin having still around six weeks away, we've already seen many miners closing up shops at these prices, it's going to put a lot more miners out of business.

Now, what this means is that as the hash rate drops from these smaller operations going out of business, that the difficulty to mine Bitcoin, that will also drop. In fact, the difficulty for Bitcoin dropped by a whopping 16% today, which is the biggest drop in the age of the A6, and the second biggest drop ever in its history, with another drop expected to happen in two

weeks. Now, a dropping difficulty means that it makes it more likely for miners to be profitable, especially those who can get their hands on the new equipment. So a downtrend in difficulty adjustment completes the so-called miner-compitulation cycle. And look, far from being a bad thing, which you might think, well, that's really bad, all these things happening. But no, this really just underlines how robust and how

actually reactionary the incentive structure is for mining Bitcoin. Because a dropping difficulty, that will actually allow some miners to turn their machines back on, which makes the network again more secure. So it's this constant push and pull effect. Hash rates should increase with that drop in difficulty. Now, if not, then we of course may see a further drop in the future. So that's what's happening to

the network at the moment. The massive price moves are also having a big impact on the miners, the network hash rate and the difficulty. None of that is really, really surprising. But I know why you came to watch this video. You want to know about the price of Bitcoin leading into the having and what is going to happen after the having. Well, that is exactly what

I intend to discuss with you today. Now, to get a better picture of how the future may play out, let's take a look at what happened back in 2016. Now, 48 days before the Bitcoin having, the price was kind of just chill in there. And that about 43 days out, Blammo, we saw a big run on the price of Bitcoin actually moving up 77% in the

space of around four weeks before, of course, retracing back a bit to hit around 50% greater price at the time of the having. Now, after the having, we saw Bitcoin take a dump. I rather big, steany one at that around 27.5% down. Then, I think that's what I wanted to say. And from the having to the all time high, it took 526 days or approximately 18

months to reach a new cycle peak around $20,000 mark. Now, essentially what we saw here was a rise in price from the time of the having until the cycle peak of 2008, 160% or a little over $19,000 in total dollar terms. It is also worth pointing out here that during that 18 month period post having that there were multiple brutal price drops of over 30%. Now,

from now, that will bring us up to the Bitcoin having. Now, if the price were to increase by 50% from here, then we could indeed see Bitcoin reach around $10,500 by the time of the having, but $10,000. Come on. Come on. Larger. That's not serious. Boring, man. You're boring. Big $10,000. I didn't click on this video to talk about $10,000 Bitcoin. Lark. Come on, man. I

just put all that stuff in the Hopian Bong. Let's just for $10,000. Okay. Okay. Let's bust out the good stuff then. Bitcoin is still on track to hit $100,000 this cycle. I know it sounds crazy to say that after the last few weeks. We've been through and all the pessimism currently in the market. But it is seriously going to go to $100,000, probably around the end

of next year. You have to remember, low time preferences. Now, if we do get a run to around $10,500 before the Bitcoin having, then remember that we're also likely to see a correction post having by up to 30%, which could bring us as far back down as around $7,500, post having if all of this plays out as we think it might. By the end of this

year, we could be looking at a $20,000. We're going to be looking at the $20,000 Bitcoin once again. So crossing just back over that previous all time high. And by the end of next year, that is what we could be looking at, that $100,000. Bitcoin. That being said, we are still out of bounds here on the bitcoin logarithmic growth curve chart. But remember, the upper bounds

of this chart, they give us Bitcoin at $100,000. Now a short term drop below the bottom band on this chart, that does not invalidate it. If, of course, we can recover quickly enough. And that's probably not going to be very, very good. But the short term picture, it can still get brutal chances are that this having will look nothing like the previous ones due to the

ongoing crisis. Obviously, I hope it does. That's kind of where my prediction goes. But there is a good chance that it could not play out like that at all. Things could get way, way worse with this pandemic before they start getting better. Unemployment numbers, they're likely to soar right through the roof. But giving us depression levels of unemployment, and there is a very, very real possibility

that Bitcoin may get crushed price wise in a global economic depression. Now such an eventuality that may invalidate these historical trends that I've been discussing. But personally, I think the macro picture for Bitcoin, it is looking awesome. Long term, I have no doubts about the probability of Bitcoin going up to $100,000. It seems more and more certain as we see the goal. The global economic situation

really just continuing to unfold an extreme dysfunction. Infinite quantitative easing, it has been announced. That's insane. That's most major fiat currencies. Infinite QE. Rates, rates have been slashed across the board by central banks. The debt, oh man, the debt, it has just reached unimaginable proportions. The system, the system is fundamentally broken. And the sociopaths, leading most countries, they have no idea what the heck they are

doing. Watching Bitcoin go through the having at the same time that we see fiat currencies experiencing just this extreme pain, huge inflation. It's almost a thing of devastating beauty. Just for fun. Let me share with you the Bitcoin rainbow chart. Now you know what this chart shows? It shows that there are way more buying opportunities for Bitcoin than there are. So selling opportunities. You know what

that means? Stack, sats, and chill. Long term, Bitcoin is still looking great. Those accumulating at these prices are going to look back in a couple years and laugh. The having in many ways, it is so super important. At the same time, a total non-event. Because all the having really is a sign on the highway. On our journey to the moon. The real effects of the Bitcoin

having, that will take many, many months to really be felt by the wider crypto community. Even if it means a lot of potential pain for a lot of Bitcoin miners. Thus my Bitcoin prediction remains basically what it has always been around Bitcoin having. There will be no new all time high before the Bitcoin having. Post having, there is likely to be a bit of a deflation

in the price. As the mining hash rate drops and as speculators reposition themselves. By the end of the year, $20,000 remains a very real possibility. Assuming of course that the crisis that we're currently experiencing has largely blown over by that point. And late 2021, we are likely to see a new cycle peak. And yes, that potentially means that Bitcoin could go to $100,000 late next year.

Anyway, those are just my two sadotis from a little hit on the Hopian Bung there. I would love to know your opinion on the Bitcoin having. Do you think that my prediction is going to play out? Do you see it happening differently? What are your price predictions for the having? How do you see it playing out? I would love to know your thoughts down below in

the comments section. By the way, if you are new around here and you're still trying to figure out all the basics around crypto, then check out my course, Crypto Currency Explained. I have specifically designed it for total beginners to take their first steps in to crypto. It will walk you through all of the basics, like how to buy, how to send, how to store Bitcoin and

Ethereum safely, as well as top tips and top resources that you need for your investing success. Thank you so much for watching today's video. Hope that you're staying safe. They're keeping a really good positive attitude out there during all the crazy that we are seeing in the world. Remember to count your blessings, guys. I know sometimes it seems a bit like, ah, everything's so crazy. But

take a minute. Step back. Appreciate the things in your life. Have that moment of gratitude. It really, really can do a lot to change the way that you are seeing things. Anyway, make sure to hit that thumbs up button, guys. You know, the YouTube algorithm. They love that thumbs up thing. And of course, make sure to subscribe to the channel if you are new around here.

Long live the blockchain. And peace out until next time.