Expert predicts what's next for Prigozhin

CATASTROPHIC INVASION HERE. JOHN? >> NICK PATON WALSH IN KYIV. KEEP US POSTED. SARA? >> LET'S LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE AND WHAT THIS COULD HAVE MEANT FOR PUTIN IF PRIGOZHIN HAD BEEN SUCCESSFUL. DMITRI ALPERAVIC JOINS US NOW. YOU JUST HEARD "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" REPORTING WHAT WE WERE ALL TALKING ABOUT. I'M CURIOUS IF YOU THINK THIS IS INTELLIGENCE TRYING TO GET INTO PUTIN'S HEAD OR IF

THIS IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A MUCH LARGER REVOLT HERE THAT JUST FELL AWAY? >> I THINK IT'S A LITTLE BIT OF BOTH. I THINK "THE WALL STREET GENERAL" CERTAINLY TRACKS AND WE KNOW SHOIGU WAS IN THE CITY OF ROSTOV AND HE FLED HOURS BEFORE PRIGOZHIN'S TROOPS GOT THERE, BUT THIS WAS SUCH A HAIR BRAINED SCHEME FROM THE START. EVEN IF PRIGOZHIN HAD SUCCEEDED

AND EVEN IF HE HAD TAKEN DEFENSE MINISTER SHOIGU AND CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF GERASIMOV, AND I DON'T THINK PUTIN WOULD HAVE FALLEN FOR THAT BLACKMAIL AND I DON'T THINK IT WOULD HAVE CHANGED ANYTHING. >> I'M CURIOUS WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO PRIGOZHIN AND ANYONE ELSE THAT THE FSB OR THAT, YOU KNOW, PUTIN'S CLOSE CORNERS DECIDE WERE INVOLVED IN THIS? >> I THINK PRIGOZHIN

IS A VERY PRECARIOUS SITUATION. YES, HE'S EXILED TO BELARUS, AND YES, PUTIN PROMISED HIM AMNESTY AND THE KEY THING IS THAT THE AMNESTY WAS FOR THE MUTINY AND THERE ARE OTHER CHARGES THAT HE COULD BE BROUGHT ON AND PUTIN ALLUDED THAT HE MAY HAVE BEEN STEALING SOME OF THE MONEY THAT FROM THE STATE CONTRACTS FOR RUNNING WAGNER AND CATERING TO THE RUSSIAN MILITARY. HE COULD BE

PROSECUTED FOR MI MISAPPROPRIATION OF FUNDS AND HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF BEING THE TRUTH. IT DOESN'T EVEN NEED TO BE MADE UP AND BELARUS IS WITH RUSSIA, SO HE COULD STILL FIND HIMSELF IN A RUSSIAN JAIL. >> I'M CURIOUS HOW INTERESTING YOU THINK IT IS BECAUSE I FIND IT FASCINATING WHEN RUSSIA AND PUTIN TALK ABOUT JUST HOW MUCH MONEY THEY HAVE PAID TO PRIGOZHIN'S WAGNER MERCENARIES.

ABOUT A BILLION DOLLARS, 86 BILLION RUBLES. WHEN YOU HEAR THAT KIND OF NUMBER, WHY DO YOU THINK THAT INFORMATION IS BEING PUT OUT NOW? >> I THINK PUTIN IS CLEARLY LIVID. THE ONE THING YOU CANNOT DO TO PUTIN IS BE DISLOYAL AND THIS IS THE RED LINE THAT PRIGOZHIN HAS CROSSED AND I DON'T THINK HE INTENDED TO AND HE RECEIVED THAT WAVE BY PUTIN, SO HE

IS NOW TRYING TO PAY PRIGOZHIN AND SHOW JUST HOW DISLOYALTY HAS BEEN AND HE'S GOTTEN A BILLION DOLLARS FOR WAGNER AND ON TOP OF A BILLION DOLLARS FOR CATERING MEALS TO THE RUSSIAN MILITARY. HE'S GOTTEN VERY, VERY RICH OFF OF THESE CONTRACTS AND THAT'S JUST IN THE LAST YEAR SO YOU CAN IMAGINE HOW LONG IT'S BEEN GOING ON SINCE EARLY 2010, SO HE WANTS TO SHOW

EVERYONE THAT THIS IS NOT WHAT YOU ARE GOING TO DO IF YOU'RE MAKING MONEY OFF OF ME, YOU BETTER NOT BE DISLOYAL. >> RUSSIA IS KNOWN FOR POISONING PEOPLE AND THROWING PEOPLE OUT OF WINDOWS OR JUST ARRESTING YOU OR PUTTING YOU IN A WORK CAMP FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE. I DO WANT TO ASK YOU ONE THING ABOUT NEIGHBORING COUNTRY BELARUS. WE HEARD FROM PRESIDENT

HIS RULING OF BELARUS BECAUSE REMEMBER, EARLIER THIS MONTH HE HAD RECEIVED TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM RUSSIA AND THEY'RE STILL PLACED IN BELARUS AND STILL MAINTAINED BY RUSSIAN FORCES THERE AND HE'S SHOWN HOW HE IS A PEACEMAKER AND RESOLUTION AND NOW HE BELIEVES THAT PUTIN ALSO OWES HIM FOR SAVING HIM EFFECTIVELY BY FOR THIS MARCH ON MOSCOW. HE'S RELISHING THE SPOTLIGHT AND THE REPUTATION HE HAS. >>

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