Source: CNBC Television
Mortgage interest rates matter 'less today than they have historically': NAR's Jessica Lautz
Jun 28, 2023 · 5m 2s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06NTW56NtKE
THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH 7% AGAIN. >> THEY DID, A TRICKY ENVIRONMENT. LET'S BRING IN JESSICA LAOS. SHE IS DEPUTY CHIEF ECONOMIST AT THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. AGAINST BUYERS OF NEW HOMES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAKE THEIR PEACE WITH IT SOMEHOW. IS THERE ANYTHING THAT MIGHT BRING OUT MORE INVENTORY THAT WILL ALLOW THE EASING OF THIS LOGJAM THAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH
HOME SALES? >> WE HAVE ALSO SEEN BUILDING PERMITS UP SLIGHTLY. THAT IS AN ENCOURAGING SIGN. WE HAVE BEEN UNDER BUILDING IN THE U.S. FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PERIOD OF TIME AND IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MEET THE DEMAND ON THE SIDELINES RIGHT NOW. PRICES FOR NEW HOMES ARE CERTAINLY ENCOURAGING. BRINGING HOMEBUYERS INTO THAT TYPE OF PRODUCT. >> WHAT ABOUT THE RELUCTANCE OF PEOPLE THAT ARE LOCKED INTO
MORTGAGE RATES TO PUT THEIR HOME ON THE MARKET. IS THERE ANYTHING OVERTIME THAT CAN CHANGE THAT? >> I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF RELUCTANCE AND SEPARATION ANXIETY FROM THAT LOW INTEREST RATE TO BE ABLE TO MOVE. THE REASON THAT PEOPLE MOVE IS BECAUSE SOMETHING IN THEIR LIFE CHANGES. A NEW JOB OR A NEW BABY. IT WILL MEAN THAT PERSON IS GOING TO HAVE TO MOVE
TO A NEW HOME TO ACCOMMODATE THEM. THAT CAN ALSO BE A RETIREE THAT NEEDS TO DOWNSIZE FOR A GRANDBABY. >> POINT US TOWARDS THE AVAILABILITY OUTLOOK AT THIS POINT. AND WE THINK THESE VOLUMES WILL GO AT THIS POINT. >> AFFORDABILITY IS NOT GREAT AT ALL. WE HAVE SEEN THE S&P HOME PRICE IS A LITTLE BACKGROUND LOOKING, IT IS BACK AGAIN FOR THREE STRAIGHT MONTHS. PEAKED LAST
JUNE, CAME BACK IN THE FALL AND ARE SLIGHTLY DOWN .2% YEAR-OVER-YEAR IN APRIL. THE REASON THE BUILDERS ARE DOING SO WELL IS NOT BECAUSE THEY ARE LOWERING HOME PRICES A LITTLE BIT WHAT THEY ARE. THEY ARE BUYING DOWN MORTGAGE RATES. THEY ARE ALLOWING PEOPLE TO NOT HAVE THE SIX PERCENT. THAT GIVES THEM THAT CUSHION FOR A YEAR OR TWO BEFORE THEY GET INTO THE MARKET. THAT
CONTINUES NOW WHERE WE SEE BUILDERS DOING LESS OF THAT. THEY DO NOT HAVE TO. ON THE HOME SIDE, WHEN WE SAY WE ARE REALLY TRYING TO HAVE SUPPLY, HALF THE SUPPLY THAT WE HAD IN 2019, WE WERE BELOW HISTORICAL AVERAGES. IT WILL TAKE A LONG TIME FOR THE SUPPLY SITUATION TO GO BACK UP. >> YEAH, JESSICA, THE REGIONAL BANK AND THE RELUCTANCE TO DO IT FREELY,
ARE YOU CONCERNED ABOUT FINANCING AVAILABILITY, THIS IS SOMETHING THAT THE MARKET HAS GOING FOR US, THE ABILITY TO LEVERAGE THAT. >> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE HAVE TO REMEMBER RIGHT NOW IS WE ARE IN A UNIQUE ENVIRONMENT WHERE BABY HAVE HOME EQUITY. THEY HAVE $200,000 IN HOUSING EQUITY. THEY ARE PAYING CASH. YES, INTEREST RATES MATTER, ESPECIALLY TO FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS. THEY MATTER LESS TODAY THAN THEY
HAVE IN THE PAST. >> THIS OTHER WRINKLE WHERE IT SEEMS LIKE IT IS STATISTICALLY RELEVANT. PEOPLE ARE CHOOSING NOT TO SELL A HOME BUT YOU RENTED OUT. THE RENTAL MARKET IS SO STRONG. WHAT YOU MAKE OF THAT? >> ABSOLUTELY, WE DO NOT HAVE THE NUMBERS ON THAT. PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT DOWNSIZING. MAYBE I WILL KEEP THE HOME. EVEN IF I'M GOING TO RENT, THE RENTAL MARKET,
THE SINGLE- FAMILY RENTAL MARKET I
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