Source: CNBC Television
A few more rate hikes might not be as damaging to market sentiment after June pause: Julia Coronado
Jun 28, 2023 · 5m 32s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9Umr4UrSsM
THE PRICE INCREASE WILL BE MORE. WE HAVE SEEN WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE, IT IS SOMETHING THAT WE HAVE TO DO. IT IS ONE OF THE PRINCIPAL THINGS THAT SOCIETY COUNT ON US TO ACCOMPLISH. WE ALL COMMIT TO ACCOMPLISHING IT. >> LET'S BRING IN JULIE CORONADO. TO WEIGH IN ON THESE MESSAGES. IT IS A RESOLUTE ONE ACROSS THE BOARD, SEEMINGLY. WE ARE RELUCTANT TO DECLARE VICTORY. RATES
MIGHT HAVE TO GO HIGHER. WE ARE TAKING THEM ON THEIR WORD THAT THIS IS WORKING. >> YEAH, THEY ALL STRUCK THE UNIFIED TONE ON THE ONE HAND. THEY ALL KIND OF ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS IS WHERE THEY ARE TRYING TO GO. EMPHASIZING HOW MUCH THEY HAVE DONE AND ONE OF THE REASONS FOR SKIPPING JUNE IS THAT THEY ARE SLOWING DOWN AND SEEING WHETHER THEY HAVE DONE ENOUGH.
THEY HAVE ANOTHER RATE HIKE, IT WILL NOT BE AS DAMAGING TO THE MARKET SENTIMENT GIVEN WHY THEY ARE DOING THAT, THE ECONOMY AND THE LABOR MARKET ACROSS THE GLOBE HAS BEEN TREMENDOUSLY RESILIENT. >> YOU DID EMPHASIZE THE ELEMENT OF TIME. PERHAPS THAT WILL BE THE NEXT STAGE OF SEEING IF WE CAN RESTRAIN THE ECONOMY. HAVE WE LEARNED ANYTHING ABOUT THE INTERPLAY OF UNEMPLOYMENT, INFLATION, AND FED
POLICY OVER THIS PERIOD AS IT IS DOWN AS WE HAVE GONE UP BY 12% IN RANGE. >> WHAT IS REALLY STRIKING IS IT IS NOT UNIQUE TO THE U.S. GOVERNOR BAILEY TALKED ABOUT IT. CONTINENTAL LABOR MARKETS ARE SEEING THE SAME THING. SOMETHING REFERRED TO AS LABOR AWARDING. GIVEN HOW HARD IT WAS FOR COMPANIES TO STAFF UP DURING THE PEAK OF THE LABOR MARKET, THEY ARE INCLINED
TO HOLD ONTO THEIR WORKERS LONGER EVEN AS REVENUE GROWS LOW. THAT COULD GIVE THE ECONOMY AND LABOR MARKETS MORE RESILIENT THE THAT WILL FACILITATE THE HOPE FOR A SOFT LANDING IF WE CAN STRIKE THAT BALANCE, AND SHARE POWER AND ENDED ON THAT NOTE. I WOULD BE OPTIMISTIC. WHEN HE WAS ASKED WHAT GIVES HIM HOPE, THIS HAS BEEN A REALLY RESILIENT LABOR MARKET. THAT GIVES THEM HOPE
THAT THEY CAN BRING INFLATION DOWN WITHOUT TOO HARD OF A LANDING. WITHOUT AN EXTREME RISE OF UNEMPLOYMENT. THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS COMING OUT OF ALL OF THESE ECONOMIES. >> HE DID GIVE A NOD INDIRECTION TO THE INDICATORS OF INFLATION GETTING MORE FRIENDLY. SHELTER COSTS AND THINGS LIKE THAT. THAT IS WHAT THE MARKET LIKES TO HEAR AS WELL. WHAT ROLE DO YOU THINK THESE REGIONAL BANKS
THAT WE SAW IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS WHAT THEY ARE THINKING FOR THE ECONOMY IN GENERAL, ARE WE WAITING FOR THAT SHOE TO DROP? >> THAT IS SOMETHING THAT HE WAS VERY CLEAR ABOUT IN HIS CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY LAST WEEK. THAT IS ONE REASON THAT THEY'LL PAUSE THE RATE HIKES IN JUNE. WHEN WE SEE A PERIOD OF BEING STRESSED LIKE WE HAVE SEEN, THERE IS A WAVE
OF CREDIT HEIGHTENING BEYOND WHAT YOU GET FROM HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND THE FED. IT TAKES SOME TIME FOR THAT TO UNFOLD. THEY HAVE NOT SEEN THAT IN THE DATA BUT THEY DO NOT EXPECT TO HAVE SEEN IT YET. BY SLOWING THINGS DOWN, THAT GIVES THEM SOME TIME. SO THAT YOU CAN MATERIALIZE AND DO SOME OF THE WORK FOR THEM. HE WAS PRETTY CLEAR, AT LEAST FOR
HIM, THERE MIGHT BE A DIVERGENCE ON THE COMMITTEE. AT LEAST FOR ME, THAT WAS A REASON WE DID NOT RAISE RATES IN JUNE. >> THE MARKET HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP THE IDEA THAT RATES WILL BE ON A DOWNSWING BEFORE VERY LONG. SOME OF THOSE CUTS HAVE COME OUT OF HE MARKET. DO YOU READ THAT AS A ROOT RECESSION CALL BY THE MARKET, THAT IS
WHERE THE RISK LIES RIGHT NOW. YOU HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR IT? >> IT IS HARD TO PART FOR THOSE SCENARIOS WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE INTEREST RATES. IT HAS KIND OF LEVELED OUT FOR A LONGER PERIOD BEFORE THOSE CUTS KICK IN LAST YEAR. THAT IS THE BASELINE SCENARIO OF THE GRADU
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