Show #486: The 2020 "Regular" Season Comes To A Cl

You're listening to Atlanta baseball talk. You're weekly podcast for all things at Atlanta Braves. [ OUTRO MUSIC PLAYING [ Welcome to Atlanta baseball talk, show number 486. Today is Sunday, September 27, 2020. My name is Steve. I'm joined by both Hammy and Curtis and folks. Please help out the show by telling your friends sharing links and writing reviews if you do. You, Ender, Retires tomorrow morning,

is named Falcons head coach and both teams immediately become better. It would be. For comments last week's stung and I needed to really up my game. Well, you know, for the second week in a row, you could have said, Dan Quinn is going to be the next player of set coach. Yeah, it would be the worst thing ever. Alright folks, and tonight's show, we will discuss

team that he had shoulder discomfort and could not pitch his scheduled start on Tuesday. He was promptly removed from the playoff roster and the glory is chapter in brave history that was Cole Hamilton's comes to an end. Three promising innings. Yeah, well, that's the thing. So, I know that like when we first saw the news, we were all over text to each other about like, oh

my God. But now that you've had some time, do you think this dramatically changes the teams chances in the playoffs? No, I mean, it would have been nice to have him certainly, but. You know, we've been dealing with I don't think he would have given us that big lift. I think our starting rotation is our biggest liability. And if we can get to our pen and

our offense can take over, it doesn't matter if Cole Hamilton is on the team or not. Curtis, you see it ain't different. No, I mean, honestly, there was nothing that we could hold. Hang our hat on. It's not like he was there. I'll season long you and I talked to the platinum. Some braille guys about this this week. I mean, there's just there's just no obvious

loss because we never had anything to hold onto. I mean, it's right. A drop of avoid. So I mean, and there was no guarantee that had he, you know, had he pitched Tuesday and still looked fine enough, right? And built up his, his innings a bit. And then I guess probably pitched again on Sunday. That he would have gotten a start in the wildcard series. Right.

I mean, they could have absolutely just gone freed Anderson right, which of course they're going to do now. So yeah, look, it was a nice pipe dream, but not to be certainly a fan god that right has figured it out over the last few weeks. You know, if there was really only two starters to actually point to for the wildcard series, that would feel a little

different. But yeah, I think not a big sort of impact here. Did you not to revision this history here, but you do, do you see the dials, Kiko finished with a sub to ERA? I did see like game to game. I would notice, you know, on the ticker and see how well he was doing. Yeah, but you know, who knows they certainly they're they, you know,

to your point, Kurt, right, there was no way they should have resigned. No, no, especially after the playoffs and exactly everything else. All right. So next day, Tuesday, and this is about the only good news in the segment, by the way, the Braves clinched the NLE behind a terrific start by Bryce Wilson. Wilson started again on Sunday today in the finale. And he was not as

sharp, but had a bunch of good moments. And I'd say earned himself a spot on the 40 man playoff pool and maybe a consideration in the NLDS, 28 man roster. And frankly, maybe consideration for the wildcard round roster. But good to see Bryce Wilson not take a huge step back, still attack, still be able to a little less, but still be able to attack that, you

know, the inside on right handers and live at the bottom of the zone. Some, you know, I mean, I think he's a he's a piece, right? He's a piece for the playoff. Is he your fourth starter? Assuming we get to the NLDS? Yes. Yeah. Yeah. What you get? And we talked about on Wednesday. But I think so, right? I mean, I would much rather start with

him and pull him early. If it doesn't look good and then go with Tomlin. As opposed to start Tomlin or, you know, look, I don't know that he knows is going to make the 28 man roster. But let's say he does and do one of the ANOA starts. I would rather Bryce Wilson. Yeah. Agreed. So on Wednesday, Max Fried and his final tune up left in

the first inning after tweaking his ankle. Well, fielding a bunch. No more fielding. Pictures are not allowed to field anymore. We'll just make that. We'll take our take our lumps. You can bun all you want. No more fielding of ball for pictures. So the team has said he'll be good to go to start game one of the playoffs on Sunday. He threw live BP to Austin

Riley. Who did not play the last two games of this series because he tweaked something that I'm now forgetting in Friday's game. But they both the reports were that they both felt great. Looked good. So hopefully the free thing is just, you know, passed us now as well as Riley. What was his velocity in the few pitches that he had was he he was down a

little bit up from the previous game though. Or about the same. Oh, right. No. So I think. I saw like he hit 94 on on Wednesday. But again, not too many pitches. Sure. And then we fast forward to Sunday. Today we're recording. And the day started with a last minute scratch of Ronald Acunia due to wrist soreness. Of course, the same one that landed Emma on

the I.L. earlier this season. And it was all very much couched in as a precaution kind of language. But I don't love it. I'll be quite honest. And then in Sundays game, Chris Martin had to leave mid appearance due to a groin strain. Post game. Snittger said that he is day today. You know, guys, we don't swear on the show. Some of us don't. Yeah. Not.

66% of us don't swear on the show. And the other one only sometimes winning character. The Chris Martin news, particularly, but not to mention Acunia. Both very unwelcome news today. Yeah. Yes. Well, yes. Oh, and brand. I mean, talk about sort of stumbling in to the end of the regular season. And look, they. There was nothing to play for. Right. They had wrapped up not only

the end at least, but the number two seed earlier in the week. But right. These last games. You're hoping for let's just keep people sharp and no injuries. And we failed at that. I'm not, you know, I'm not blaming anyone. Right. I mean, there were people like. I mean, Snittger for having Martin in there today. I mean, that's not like you, you know, guys get their

final two noves. It's just, I mean, the fact that Chris Martin. Getting injured in game one against the Cardinals sort of changed the entire tenor of that series. Him doing it again. It's just like, come on, guys, come on. Well, and then the Acunia. I love co-play. Yeah. Nice. Hey, woozing. Or are you going to say, huh? Well, that we could absorb Chris Martin's loss much

more than I think we could Acunia's certainly over the length of the playoffs. Right. We get to we need Acunia more than we need Martin. Yeah. For sure. Yeah. And and post game Snittger said that he plans on all the regulars starting on Wednesday. So I mean, but look, they don't really know. They don't know how Acunia's wrist is going to feel tomorrow or Tuesday. I

mean, we just knocking on wood with all this. So with all that news. Let's talk about the wild card round. So after, you know, a bunch of intrigue on Sunday and a lot of variables, it all ended up as it has looked for the last number of days, which is the Braves end, of course, as we said, in the number two seed and the number seven

seed remains the Cincinnati Reds. So three game wild card series. And let's start here. The Reds went 15 and nine in September. They finished the season at 31 and 29. And the fact is that the Reds underperformed just sort of based on expectations heading into the season. They underperformed at the start of the season and are reaching their stride now. Helped by the fact that Sonny

Gray has returned and is back in their rotation. So let's look at the starting pitching, look at the bullpen, look at the offense and see what the Braves are up against. And I will start with the starting pitching. So the team announced earlier this week that their three starters would be in order. Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, not a lot of surprise there. Let's

look at some of their numbers. So Bauer ends the season with a Gaudi 1.73 ERA and a 325 X-Fip. He struck out 12 plus per nine, walked 2 plus per nine, gave up 1.1 homeruns per nine. In five starts in September, he was better. 129 ERA and a 320 X-Fip. So next up Luis Castillo, he ends the season with a 3-D 201 ERA and a 220

X-Fip. He struck out 11 plus per nine, walked 3 plus per, gave up less than 1 homerun per. In five starts, he was better by ERA, a 220 ERA. His X-Fip was up a bit at 246. And the end was Sonny Gray. So he ends the season with a 373 ERA and a 303 X-Fip. He struck out 12 plus per nine, walked almost 4 per nine,

gave up less than 1 homerun per nine. In three starts in September, his numbers were not great. He gave up 6 earned and 5 earned in his first two starts in September. And then in today's start, Sunday, he went 5 and gave up 1. So he certainly had a much better start to end his regular season. So, I mean, look, it is stout numbers from starting

pictures. What I would say about that is the braves, you know, the last few years rise to the occasion with the aces. Right? We've seen it with DeGrom. We saw it with, we saw it with Bauer last year. You guys remember the Bauer start where he complained at the end that he complained post-game that the braves worked the count too much and fouled off a bunch

of pitches? Like, it is one of the things that the braves are really good at. So, you know, if the braves, I mean, it's been, you know, with all the comebacks this regular season, it has been part of the recipe. Get through the starters and get to the bullpen and make hay when you need to at the end of the game. Yeah. But it's tough. I

mean, they are, it makes me nervous. Right? I mean, I know we do, but then also you look at how, you know, flirty shut us down last year, the last game when we needed to. Right? Certainly we can get to aces when there's not pressure in the post season. We've done it. But then we have a way of going cold against good pitching as recently as

the last time we were in the playoffs. So that's certainly their strength. They're starting pitching. Yep. So, Kurt, let's talk about their bullpen. What do you see there? Well, it's gotten better. At the beginning of the season, they did not have a very good bullpen. It's overall, they ranked 20th out of Major League Baseball with a 4.64 ERA. But since sort of mid-August, they've gotten progressively

better. They do struggle with walks much like our bullpen. They've got a lot of bullpen, doesn't it, times. But they've got some pieces, rice, rice sell. Sorry, I don't know how to say his first name. Galacious says they're closer. Right. Right. Right. And he's been pretty good. He's only blown a couple of saves. He's got an ERA of 274. Only is given up one home run.

So 31 strikeouts. And they've got a mere Garrett, who's another guy with a 245 ERA. Lucas Sims is pitched really well for them out of the bullpen. So they've got some guys. And if you think that they have their starters that can get deeper into games, they're not going to have to go super deep into their bullpen. They've got a couple of pieces, Nate Jones, Michael

Orinzen, who are not as good, high ERA guys. They've given up a bunch of walks, things of that nature. But those are just going to be middle reliever guys. So the key is going to be with the braves is to get high strike counts or high pitch counts on the starting pitchers and wear them down and get them out of the game. So you can get

to the soft underbelly of the bullpen because the back end is pretty decent. So that's where the key is going to lie. The braves are going to have to be patient. And when you get these guys that throw a lot of walks, hopefully they've got that scouting report and no to to wait on pitches and then ambush them. So, um, yeah, it's not a great bullpen,

but they've got some pieces that are decent. You just want to avoid having to see them too often. Yeah, I mean, look, yes, we're talking about stuff to hang your hat on. You're right. I mean, it is a decent bullpen, but it's not like crazy shutdown, right? The 464 ERA occurred in the NL. It was 11th. They got a little better in September. They were seventh

in ERA at 3.79. Yeah. And Eglaceus strikes out a bunch of guys. But he gives up a little over two walks per nine. So, you know, in short appearances, and that's the kind of thing you can take advantage of. So, yeah, get past the starting pitchers and get to the bullpen. I mean, that's going to be key to this whole thing. Yeah. So, Ham, yeah, it's

about their offense. It's not great. So, you know, individually, there's some guys we know a few. So, Joey Vato and Mike Musakis are the most, you know, recognizable names on there. But Vato this year was slash 228349451. 11 homers had an 800 OPS. Musakis 231, 335, low OPP, 478. He had the highest OPS on the team at 813. So, those guys are not contributing a lot.

You may know Nick Castellanos. I know he was in the talks as somebody that was out there. Second and H.O. He's second and homers on the team with 14. Actually, the guy who leads the team and homers as Eugenio Suarez, their third baseman. He's got 15. And the best hitter on the team is Jesse Winker. He leads the team in all categories. 252, 387, 537. So,

he's their best hitter for the whole slash line. And overall, it's a lot of not looking great, right? So, their 30th and batting average, Braves are second. And this is an amazing major. You know, who's number one in batting average in the majors? Don't look. I'll give you five bucks if you get this right. The Seattle Mariners. The Texas Rangers. Steve, you were wrong. It's over

your court. The Mets. Really? Braves are number two. So, they're low in, you know, 23rd and OPP sluggings better at 18th. Some stats that are interesting. They are, they're 30th in Babip. So, batting average of balls in play. So, they have had the most unlucky season. And so, at the plate and Steve, you talked about underperforming to sort of what their talent is. That's the number

right there. You know, who's number one in the majors in Babip? Your Atlanta Braves. So, that's something that, you know, may come back to center in the playoffs and could make a fan nervous. You know, the other, but where they're good though is their seventh and homers. And they're sixth and walks, right? So, they get on base and then they can, they have a chance to

knock them in. And that makes you nervous when, you know, your Wilson's and your rights are a little wild or Anderson's even. And then you get a guy like Castellanos or Suarez up and, you know, they can, they can bash. So, but I, but having said that they're horrible. They have the lowest batting average. And even though they went 15 to 9 down the stretch and

it wasn't because their bats came alive, really. I mean, they were slightly better in some categories, but still weren't hitting a lot. Really low average. Right. Yeah. When, when I look at the, so you did the majors, I looked at National League. Yeah. Right. They were 13th and runs scored 13th and OBP 9th and slugging 4th and homers. And those numbers were essentially the same in

September. So, they hit some home runs, but the rest of it, they don't do all that well. Well, they're only the 13th ever to make the postseason, having the worst team batting average and major league baseball. 2020. Yeah. It's a real baseball. The 2007 diamond bags made it too. But to ham to your point, they, they 61.7% of their runs come via home runs. So the

good news there is freed does not give up a lot of home runs. And we already know. So that and in limited action, Ian Anderson and. Call right. Call right. Have not given. I guess, Call right more so is given up seven, but that seems like that was something early on. He is not seen like he's been given up a lot of home runs recently. But

Ian Anderson in his starts, he's only given up one free gave up those two back to back when he tweaked his ankles. So for his first of the season, right. So you got to make sure that you're not walking a bunch of guys. They're obviously patient. And you got to make sure that you don't give them extra runs via walks that they've then turn into two,

three run homers, which of course are absolute murder in the in the playoffs. Anyway, if you give up a three run homer. Yep. Well walks are just murder in general. So. All right. So look, that's the numbers, right. And let's start with you. Why are you most hopeful? Sorry. Let's start with biggest concern. What's your biggest concern? Is you look at the series? What we just

said about the that they don't need to like, you know, we can shut them down for six innings. And just get a little sloppy with a walk a two out walk in a homer. And then you know, going up against power and Castillo, those guys can shut us down. And so, I mean, I know that that's sort of flying in the face of the offense, which

is so good. But it's the playoffs. And that's the thing that's happening. So if we go cold, you know, that's my biggest concern. It's funny. My, you know, it's our strength, of course. But the offense going dormant is also like my biggest concern. Because, you know, it's the only way we lose. It's the only way we lose, I think. Sorry. I think so too. Because I

think that I think that despite the inexperience of the three starting pictures that will go. I think that they're there. Their ceilings are really high. And they're. And the fours are not that low. I just don't think any of those guys are going to go completely off the rails. They will either, you know, pitch really good games or at least keep us in it enough to

give us time to get to the ball pen and then win. Yeah. Curtis, your biggest concern. Sure. I think that that that is going to be the key is what happens with the offense. I mean, my biggest concern is this the braves. And it's the postseason. And anything that can happen can happen. And normally, it's not going to be the same. It's bad. But, you know,

I know that these last few games have not meant much of anything, but save the game on Friday. The offense has really not been there at all. So, you know, I mean, I'm going to be nervous. I'm going to be nervous because this is the postseason and the braves have found more ways to lose than they have to win. So, I'm not super worried about the

starting pitching. I think you guys are right. I think that these three pictures. Have shown that they've got the the metal to stand up in these situations. But, you know, I mean, I could just see some two to one, three to two game just being dragged out where the braves missed tons and tons of opportunities because unfortunately. The moments that come up when we really need

a Zuna or Freeman or somebody like that that at bats can fall to Tyler flowers or, you know, ender Markeicus. Yeah, I can't imagine. Enders. I've never seen a lot of the field, but Riley, you know, one of those guys that has really not been great down the stretch. And, you know, we just find ways to not score. You know, just real quick, we're mentioning Riley,

we talked last Sunday about the bottom third of the lineup being Markeicus and Riley and Dan's being we needed at least one of those guys to show back up. And Dan's being right on cue did. You know, we hit three homers this week. I mean, Dan's we had a really good week. Markeicus actually even had a couple of hits. So things got a little better there.

You know, the other nightmare scenario for me is Chris Martin can't go. Melanson's been a bit shaky. Shane greens actually been a bit shaky, right? Well, we'll Smith is not had a good season at all. Right. And we'll Smith is not had a good season. He left one fat over the plate on Sunday for a home run. You know, the good guys. And the bullpen continued

to need to be the good guys and be shut down. And somehow we're going to see Luke Jackson in like two of these games. I don't know. Maybe one. Hopefully it's a blowout. Yeah, exactly. So, Kurt, why are you most hopeful? The same reason I was nervous. It's just that the offense is so insanely good. And that they can just get on a run with it.

And, you know, they they can also have these games. Where they look like they're out of it. And then you get to that middle relief core and the brave just explode. You know, that you never could seem to keep the braves down. They're never out of it. I mean, I you never feel like that there's a game lost until the last out is completed with the

braves offense. Ready to go when they're going to have the last at bat and all three of these games. So that's, you know, that's my big thing is that I'm going to have a good season. This offense has faced a lot of really good pitching this year. So I don't think they're going to be intimidated by these guys. And they find ways they make things happen.

So, you know, you that's what got us here. And you got to believe that that's what's going to get us through. Yeah, I mean, look, freed is going to be nails Anderson the moment will not be too big for him. Right. You know, the moment may be too big for him. We'll see, right? But he seems really composed as well. The starting pitching will be good

enough. And the offense in the bullpen will take care of the rest. I mean, it has been. Well, frankly, it's been the recipe for 60 games. And, you know, there 10 games over 501 NL least it can be good enough for the playoffs at least this round. And what, what makes you most hopeful? That their offense is so bad. And that our our bullpen despite always

said is so good. Our bullpen was in majors, right? Behind the Dodgers and Indians, they the Dodgers gave up 0.85 Indians to homers per nine. Braves are right there. 0.88. Our our bullpen doesn't give up homers. That's the way the reds win. And I think. Yeah. I think we're just going to have more than they do when it when it matters. All right. It's prediction time.

So, who wins and how many games we went into? I love it. I love it. I will go braves winning. I think that they beat Bauer. Losing game two and then winning game three. Curtis? Yeah. Deep in the recesses of my black heart, I feel like this might be another heart breaker where the reds win in three. But I just can't go out that way. I

the Braves in three. I think the Braves win this in three games. I don't think yeah, I don't I just don't see them sweeping out of this series. But Braves in three. All right. So, um, a quick announcement about this series more shows we are in the first time in the history of the podcast. We are going to do shows at same, you know, same day

wrapping up each of the playoff games. So there will be a show Wednesday night and a show Thursday night and no show Friday. Yeah, no show Friday because the Braves will have swept. Um, so yeah, stay tuned for that. All right, guys. Next up is shot in the dark. But first a quick break. the Braves will go three and one versus the Marlins to clinch and

that Freddie would have five walks, five doubles and eight RBI. So good on the Marlins series, three and one and clinching. But Freddie, five walks, that was good. Only three doubles and five RBI. So thanks for playing back. Well, that was good. Thank you. Thanks. I will see you there next up Timber Braves predicted that the team would have two starters. Go seven plus innings. Right

when six and two thirds. And that is as close as any of the starters. Got. Um, R B predicted the Freddie would win the batting title by five points. That was also not Zuna at three thirty eight. So I don't know if you guys saw it, but so yeah, I mean amazing. Right. Um, so do. Bad. It had had his first at bat on Sunday. Got

to hit. It was a single. And then they sat in. How do you guys feel about that? Nothing matters in 2020. Well, I mean, look, it is the kind of thing that happens in baseball. Yeah, I mean, some managers. It's a little sleazy, but, you know, what I mean, like they're not going to the playoffs. It's all they really get to hang their hat on. So

whatever, let them have it. All right. Kai Todd predicted that Ozzy and Azuna, Ozuna would Homer. I'm sorry. Ozzy and Akunia would Homer in the same game against the Marlins and that Freddie would have at least five extra bass hits. So no homers for either Akunia or Ozzy in the Marlins series. Freddie did in fact have five extra bass hits three doubles and two homers. And

then last up was Timothy Romand who predicted that the mystery starter on Wednesday. Remember, there was no when Hamils was going to go Tuesday. There was no starter named on Wednesday. That the mystery starter on Wednesday would get the division clinching win for the brave. So guys, this is kind of an interesting one because after Hamils dropped out, they moved freed to Wednesday and the mystery

starter really became the Tuesday game started by Bryce Wilson. And the braves did in fact, clean. So we're going to give it to you, Timothy. Congratulations. Hey, you get the last. Kuzi in the regular season. So that's great. So look, we'll reach out to you on Twitter. Get your address and we'll send that out. Nice job. Yeah. Good job, Timothy. So let's see how we did.

I predicted that Dan's B Riley and Cakes would hit four more homers this week. Three for Dan's B and neither Riley. Oh, yeah. The rest of the way. Ham, you predicted the braves would clinch the vision on Wednesday. And yet it was Tuesday. It was Tuesday. Damn fillies in math. Exactly. Curtis, you predicted five quality starts this week. And there was one rights on Friday with

six and two thirds. There was one on Friday. And then what about the rest of the week? Yeah. None the rest of the week. Damn it. All right. Guys. So let's talk about what we have this week. Right? It is Wildcard Series edition. I will start. I predict that mentor, green and melansion give up zero runs in the series. And what do you got? I predict

that Ronald, Akunya will hit a homer in every game of the wildcard series. That would be lovely. Curtis, how about you? Freed, outdool's, uh, Bauer, um, gets the win fewer runs, more strikeouts, et cetera. Yeah. I would take that too. All right, folks. The game continues. You can play this week. Get your shot in the dark in before first pitch on Wednesday. I predict just the

wildcard series. And if we pick yours, we'll discuss it on next week's show. And you could win an ABT. Kuzi if you hit it exactly. So guys, sort of a shorter week ahead segment. Because we've kind of talked about it. Right? No more than three games this week. They are all at home. Uh, Tam's point. Right? We get last ups. We are the home team. It

will be fraud. Uh, freed versus Bauer. Anderson versus Castillo. And if needed, right versus Gray. Yeah, let's do this, guys. Let's do this. Let's win the series. Come on. Okay. Let's just do it. I'm down. You know, I, I tweeted out, um, and got a lot of general agreement on Twitter that given that these are two East Coast teams, the braids and reds are not like

the sexiest matchup ever. We are going to be a bunch of one o'clock games, maybe 30, 30. Don't you think if we could be at 10 30, they would put us there. If that was allowed, 100%. We're going to be the least appealing time slot and whatever way to watch the game. It'll be unlike the MLB TV satellite channel. We're going to be the Cincinnati of.

Oh, season television coverage. Except for Cincinnati where it will be amazing coverage. All right, guys, that is the show. So look, remember folks, we will be back on Wednesday and Thursday with our, um, with our playoff game. wrap ups. And that's it. You can find us at speaker iTunes, Dicher, Google Play and Spotify. As always. You can find us at Atlanta baseball talk com to access

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