Planning Your Investments Into The Crypto Bear

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Trader Cobb Crypto Podcast. I hope you liked yesterday's episode, a bit of a longer form show with myself, Lou and Rhys having a bit of a yarn about what's going on out there in the market. So we're gonna continue to bring different forms of content, not only to the podcast, but to our Discord community. So if you haven't

got yourself access to Discord, there's many ways for you to do so. Very easy to do. It'll be in the description of this podcast, but I know you might be listening to this in the car, so it might not be quite so easy or straightforward to get to. Don't touch your phone while you're driving. You can go to any of the social media channels that we

have or visit the Trader Cobb website and if you have any problems, hit the chat box and we'll make sure you get in there. Tell you mates about it too. So in today's show, what we're going to cover, well, of course, we're gonna have a look at the market and what's been going on over the last 24 hours. And I also wanted to discuss some things

around your plan as a trader, not a trading plan. Okay, so there's a differentiation here. A trading plan is when we look at the trading strategies that we're using. We build out a business plan around that for us to stick to. What I'm talking about here is probably more, probably more likely an investing plan to be honest. What you're going to do needs to be written

down before you do it. Otherwise, I'm not gonna say, as you're going to let emotion come in possibly again and hinder your progress. So to start things off, I'm gonna start off by going, basically saying that there's a beautiful short out there in the market right now. Mattic, but pet you will go on, Mattic against the US to what's header. It's four hour come back to

an old level of support around 90 cents, just a tiny bit lower than 90 cents. The break has gone. The trend is valid and it is a very nice four hour cradle. For those of you of course, that know what the cradle strategy is. So yeah, liking the look of that right now. As far as Bitcoin goes, well so far today it's flat. It's at 16,831.

And what does that actually mean? Oh, it means they'll be sold off. And let me tell you something. Since it was, well, in December, let me actually, let me tell you something. Yeah, let's see his good idea. Let me tell you the whole range of December. So far given that we are on the eighth day of December from the high to the low Bitcoin has moved

4.2%. Now that's over eight days. It is a very side ways market. We did see, however, on the 5th of December, it push up to a high of 17,423 before closing at 16,950. So it pushed up, it pulled back and since then two days ago, it was up to 0.7 of a percent. Yesterday down 1.5%. Now whilst the up trend is still, excuse me, in motion,

once again. Well, the up trend is still valid. It is still there. We have been going completely sideways for eight days, as I said at the very beginning. So. Look earlier in the week, sorry, late last week, I should say Friday. I was kind of hopeful that we would see Bitcoin push higher and continue that up trend to give us and good seclusion, the embedded trading

conditions for us. We did not get that and we've gone sideways since. As I've looked through the charts, various times today, especially this morning, I did my full scan. There are a lot more trends out there that would benefit for us traders to see further downside. What I mean by that is that we have a couple of daily downsides. We have a lot of trends in

motion right now. We also have some nice four hour trends. A lot of those trends need to reset because we pushed high. Then we moved lower. So right now, more opportunity is available to the downside than that is to the upside. Folding back on that. Another thing that I wanted to bring up is that yesterday for my community members, those in the discord community, I did

a video to revise a video that I spoke of on the 19th of October. Now if you want reference to what that video is, you can find me on trading view and you can watch that video there or you can jump onto Twitter as I posted about that video again today. The question that I had in my community this morning on live trading floor, sorry, not

this morning, yesterday morning, was, you know, has anything changed? Are you seeing anything different to what you were seeing on October 19? Now keep in mind October 19 was prior to the collapse of FTX and prior to the issues surrounding Genesis and Gemini. So it was its own market was without those cataclysmic events, of course, Gemini and Genesis are both still balls that are up in

the air that we're not too sure about the outcome of just yet. So my coming back to that, nothing's changed for me. Do I think that Bitcoin will achieve new lows this year? Probably this year. Well, I shouldn't say this year because we haven't got much left of it. But do I think Bitcoin will see new lows in this trend so far? I would suggest that

the probability is stacked fairly heavily in the to the side of yes, we will see new lows. Why? Well, the weekly trend is still very much down and it's got pretty good seclicity. We've come back to just about test the lows. When we've you talk about the lows that were set back on the 13th of June, that low on Bitcoin was 17,570. We've come up to

of this week's candles high is 17,423. So let's call it a hundred bucks off, 150 bucks off, not much, right? It's really tested those lows pretty cleanly and currently there's a small bearish candle there on the weekly. Now of course, we've still got plenty of time left in our week. It could close bullish. Who knows? But the trend is down on the weekly and I saw

in my analysis yesterday the lows from the last two previous bear cycles that was going back in 2014 and 2017. We pull about 84%. So with that being said, yes, I stand by. In fact, that I do think we will see new lows in Bitcoin and I'll come back to this at the back end of this podcast when I talk about planning your entries into markets.

So as I said, Bitcoin's flat, $16,836 today. Ethereum also fairly flat. I mean, it's up 0.07 or 88 cents. It's at $1231.50. The selling off yesterday, 3%. And this too is another market in a weekly downtrend with a bearish candle in that cradle zone. It's down 3.7% so far this week. It's not really looking all that attractive. The four hour has been trying, I suppose you'd

say to to trend. But unfortunately, it was, I think it was yesterday. Yeah, we pushed up to a high of 1277, which took out the last lower high. So we're not in a four hour downtrend at this stage. And if we can see Ethereum start to run a little bit harder to the downside, I'm sure we're going to find some entries there. From Ethereum to Binance,

it's flat as well. $284.28. Yes, today having sold off 2.1%. It broke down through the support level that I was speaking of at 285.87 or thereabouts. And I am keeping an eye for shorts here on Binance. Very slow grind. 284.20. Since it is however, now look, it's not a good daily downtrend. Actually, I wouldn't even call it a daily downtrend. The 12 hours got a downtrend,

but we need to see momentum come back to the downside to open these trends up. XRP was down yesterday as well. 2%. It's up 0.8% today at 38.6. It did start to get a trend on the four hour, but then it bounced back again today. It's a dogs breakfast. Move on. On the doge sitting under 10 cents against today. It's at 9.8%. Up 0.9% 3%. That

represented yesterday a move lower of 4.45%. We don't look very good there on the XRP daily chart. There's not really much interest there for my standpoint. I'll be leaving that alone. Cardano sold off yesterday 2.5%. It sold off the last sort of three days today being the fourth also down 0.3% at 31 cents. Nothing really to sink our teeth there. Cardano's a little bit of support

starting to build in. Where is that level? Let's draw that in. A little bit of support coming in at around 30.7 cents. That is a level for which I will be keeping a keen eye on going into the latter stages of the day. From Cardano to Matic, which also sold off yesterday 2.25%. This is the bearish candle. The cradle tray that is available right now. I'm

not sure if I can do it. I really like it. It looks fantastic. Given my thesis on Bitcoin, potentially sliding to new lows over the coming days, weeks, months, I am very, very open to having a short position on. And Matic may just fulfill that as it is a very nice looking short. There is at 89 cents right now down 0.6% of 8%. After breaking support

yesterday, and closing down 2.25%. That being said at one stage, we have a Matic down. What was that down? It was down. 5.5% at one stage. So it did have a little bounce back. That bounce back is what is giving me the trading opportunity right now. On the dot, which is pretty much flat on the day. $5.29. It had a pretty solid sell off yesterday. 3.7%.

It doesn't sound like a lot, but compared to the rest of the market, it was quite closed down. One of the highest moves to the downside yesterday. $5.29 and flat on the day. There is a bit of a downtrend starting to move. But it needs to do more than that for me. Solano is down yesterday. 5.67% which represents the largest decline in our top 10 if

I'm correct in staying that. It's down a further 0.4% today. Sitting at $13.42 not much to speak of. And Shiba Inu was down 2.36%. Yes. So they currently up 0.88% at 0.000000. Who cares what the number is? It's too small to even acknowledge. I don't mind trading it. But I'm bugging if I can actually read how many zeros that is when there's so many together. So

coming back to what I suggested I would talk of at the beginning of this podcast. With the very high probability or with the potential reality of Bitcoin driving itself to new lows in the coming months. That might not be this year. It might be next year. But with the trend in motion, the down with momentum in play and the thesis that I put together for that

happening being the first section to break the loss of 2022 that had that consolidation. We need to really start to think about where are we going to have our orders in? How are we going to enter into the ult sort to the market that we wish to hold into our next bull market? Whenever that may be. And the fact of the matter is, is we don't

know when that will be. Well, one of the things I think would be very, very wise to do. Which first be to make a list of the markets that you want to be invest in. So let's say you've got $10,000. And let's say you're going to carve that into seven different all right. You might also a seven different, seven different cryptos. It will be wise to

consider having some of the larger market caps at the top end of your percentage holdings. So for example, you might look to go 35% in Bitcoin set 3500 for Ethereum. You might decide to go. You know another 15% there. So you've got 35% Bitcoin 15% Ethereum. Okay, so there's 50% of your portfolio taking care of it. The two largest market caps and the two tokens that

have been, I guess Bitcoin is already a token. It's just Bitcoin that have been good performers. And I don't know what the core of the entire market, especially considering the market capitalization. Then you want to carve up the other 50% in with projects that you like. So let's say you want to have some magic, for example, Salana, near I don't know, Algo, and we'll leave it

at that. Right. We'll just keep it nice and simple. Let's say you want four layer ones because they are all layer ones. With those four layer ones, you now need to break that up for the other 50% of the portfolio. So in this case, you would be going 12.5% for each of those four to represent an even size position. Now you may not want to have

an even size position across those four. For example, you might have more conviction with say, magic, than you would with near proxies. That's absolutely fine. But you need to make a list of the tokens or the crypto's layer ones, whatever you want to call them, that you would like to hold. Once you have that list, you can start to look at different, you know, divvying up

that capital across those different projects that you have. Now, of course, this is an example. I am not suggesting to you that this is the way you should do it. This is not financial advice. I am not suggesting that that support for the own building. I'm literally just giving you a bit of an understanding. An example of how you might want to consider setting up a

portfolio. The whole point of this is not to tell you about a portfolio. It's about telling you about the importance of planning for what you're going to do. Once you've got your tokens that you would like to invest in for the next bull market, that's the first step. The second step, of course, is then divvying up the percentage sizes that you would like to have for

each of those projects. From that point, then you need to bring in your expertise around reading charts. And that's where we come in. So, you know, knowing what prices that you would like to buy, now it wouldn't be a bad idea to have a tiered system. Because if you're breaking up $10,000 across, what would I say, six different tokens, six different investments, then, you know, you

might have a plan to say, okay, well, if Bitcoin gets to 12,000, that's when I'll buy Bitcoin. Okay. That's a pretty straightforward plan until it doesn't get to 12,000, then what are you going to do? So you need to have a bit of a plan that might adjust. It might change. You might need to update that on maybe a monthly basis or a weekly basis, depending

on how much time you spend reading charts and how much expertise and knowledge you have around reading those charts. So to look at the market, as I have done with Bitcoin, I think that what are the semi orders we're going to go? I haven't raised any orders just yet, by the way. I'm still keeping things off centralised exchanges for the most part. Like the majority of

my stables are still locked away in my wallet or locked away somewhere. Save any time. And essentially, what I'm looking to do is to bring them in as we get closer to those prices. Now, it might mean that I don't get my low-ball orders filled because of the spikes that we may see in the market that I might not be able to get there quick enough.

But that's okay, because I'm managing my risk absolutely at the moment until a lot of this dust settles around genesis and Gemini FTX, LardyDar, all that sort of stuff. Having a plan in place is absolutely critical. Think about, okay, if we do get down to these levels, where would I buy? Maybe stagger some orders. Buy a bit here, then a little bit lower, and then a

little bit lower again and see if you can't dollar-cost average by using support and resistance, potentially, as a tool for doing so. The other thing is, what if we don't get down to there? Well, under what circumstances would you start the dollar-cost average, or would you pull the trigger? More than happy to be buying a market at a higher price if there's conviction with that buy.

I don't mind buying on the fall, not at all. I do like to do that, but I also like to be making a conviction buy. I think it'll be difficult at the moment to see a conviction buy given that there's so much uncertainty out there, so a limit-order option seems like the more wise one on this very day I speak to you. So I hope that

is beneficial to you. I hope you enjoyed that, and I hope you talk some notes down, because that's a very simple way of breaking things down and planning your future, planning your next big profits. And as we get back into that stage, then we can talk about how we take profits, because I'll be in saying it for a long time. I did it in this bull

market. I don't know, a lot of people didn't take it. They didn't take their profits. Well, don't miss out next time. Join our Discord group. Get yourself involved. Start to tap in, ask questions, be inside of that community. It's absolutely free, and so is the become a trade-across. So go and fill your boots. Have yourself a bloody good day, and I'm going fishing tonight. Thanks for

your time, ladies and gentlemen. I'll speak to you again very soon. Bye for now.