Episode 183 - 5 Lessons To Learn From Earlier Wave

Welcome to Crypto Nights! Will we help you finally make sense of the trending world of cryptocurrencies? Hello friends, hope you're doing great! This is yet another episode from Crypto Nights! And this is your host, and today even the speaker, Kant Media, I'm happy to have you, and I want to bring an exciting episode to you. We have all been reading up quite a bit about the

future of Bitcoin, and where we are in the middle of crypto winter and all of that, and I have made one episode already about my observations on the price of Bitcoin and so on and so forth. Continuing that common sensical viewpoint, I have been scouring the web, trying to find some sensible information about where we are, and where it could be, how long these kind of

cycles last and so on and so forth. And I came across this article, How to Make Money in the Blockchain Economy. This is a kind of a fairly innocuous sounding article by somebody called Bernard Lone, LUNN. I might be boochering the pronunciation of his last name, Bernard Lone, LUNN. And it's surprisingly sensible article. And I just wanted to point out a few things in there that

I align with. I agree with actually. And what he's trying to do is three waves. He's saying learning from the past waves. His tree does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Each wave is different in subtle waves, but all waves have a lot in common. And so you can learn from looking at past waves. And he calls blockchain as wave three or version three. Oh,

if you prefer that analogy, wave one is a web wave, wave two is a social media wave. So wave three is the blockchain wave. Now, the lessons that we learned from the first and the second waves that we can now apply to the blockchain wave. And we've got a lot of things to do with the blockchain. It seems to be sensible. And these are lessons that

sound sensible. So let's look at those. What are the five lessons learned from the earlier waves? Number one drum roll, please. Number one change takes longer than forecast. Change takes longer than forecast. Remember in the Internet world, we thought, boom, eyeballs will translate into revenues instantly. And Amazon will overtake Walmart by tomorrow morning. No, that did not happen. Change took 20 years, change takes longer. Then

forecast. That's the first lesson. The second lesson change comma when it happens comma is even bigger than the wildest forecast period. What is the second one? Change when it happens is even bigger than the wildest forecasts. Wow. What does that mean? Out of the ashes of the collapse of the Internet.coms in 2000. They came Google not alter vista not Yahoo. We're old enough to remember that

not home.com or not excited.com or any others that was sold pretty well for tidy sums of money. None of them, but Google.com. Who the heck knew Google? It was not the first one to the party. And it didn't have the splashiest of teams either. It was two PhD Geeks sliding software based on an algorithm that they borrowed from journal articles. If a bunch of people part

their article and say it's a good article and those bunch of people are good people. Then the article must be a good article so we give it a high ranking. And there was called page ranking. It has nothing to do with the web pages. It's Larry Page, the name of the person. And it was called the page ranking algorithm. Right. Crazy. Change when it happens is

even bigger than the wildest forecast. Now Google. What is the valuation of Google as of today? Well, we have already seen the Internet driven companies such as Apple, Cross-Etrident dollars, Amazon, Cross-Etrident dollars. And Alphabet, the parent company of Google has a market cap of 800 billion. It's just shy of a trillion dollars. So that's what Google is today. Okay. And Microsoft is probably somewhere in the

same range. Facebook is probably a little bit behind. So change when it happens is even bigger than the wildest forecasts. Trillion dollars. Nobody even imagined that 20 years ago in the beginning days of Internet. Number three. The winners are hard to afford. Forecast early. We all thought it was Yahoo. We all thought at some point it was our turn. But it was Google. The winners are

hard to forecast early. And those winners are massive. I got Google has been massive. There are people who made billions of dollars. Several several billionaires. So that yeah. Number four. The early adopters are critical, but totally different from the mainstream. The early adopters are critical, but totally different from the mainstream for each technology. The people who adopted it. I remember doing a startup quick was a

company started off 2007. Had been an early stage investor. Facebook was relatively unknown, but they were using that too. Because they wanted to promote this across the Internet even faster. So some of the early adopters into Facebook were probably not the people that are around today. It's mainstream. Not the way it was used then. Operative being used differently today. Even better is if you go to

the predecessors, right? If you're not able to do that, you can do it. So I think it's a good idea to look at a company that came before Facebook. And that hardly looked. Or goods is something that I remember. Right? That came before Facebook. And I'm just googling it while I'm talking to you guys. And so what are the social media companies? Well, here it says

there are three social media companies that came before Facebook. Friendster, my space. Yeah, remember my space. Second life. I don't even know the other two. But I remember my space. My daughter was very, very young at the time. And she had gotten a my space account. And I was going to go to the heck is this kind of a thing. And then of course it died

a death of a thousand cuts later on. So some people refer to AOL, Geocities, 60 degrees, friends to my space, second life, Orkut. Yeah, Orkut was something that I mentioned earlier. So they were all of these companies. The winners are hard to forecast early. And those winners are massive. The early adopters are critical. As the number four point that I'm reading out now. Point number four,

the early adopters are critical, but totally different from the mainstay. Probably the people who use my space and the people are using Facebook are quite different. In fact, they have adopted that many on my space. Number five, there is a valuation crash between the early hype and eventual value creation. Internet. Oh, bust. And then growth again. Did something similar happen? To the social media? Yeah. There

was a boom and a bust, but bust kind of coincided with the mortgage crisis. So we couldn't make it out. And point fingers at social media and say, you crashed. I don't know if it really happened. But. So that valuation crash between the hype and the eventual value creation. So dot com boom. And then there was a bust. The next one I really should say is

the mortgage crash that came. That's what I remember more than I don't remember a social media crash. All the early companies that we read out all vanished and out of the ashes came Facebook, which is now flying high. It is the same thing with blockchain happiness. Well, if we look at all of these five lessons, number one, changes take longer than forecast. So Facebook started off

in 2009. It might be 20 years. It might be. Whoa, 29, 20, 29 before we see some big company emerge as a trillion dollar business. Like Amazon or Apple or Google or whatever else. Okay. Change takes longer than forecast. But I think it's fair to say 10 years ago. So right around 2019, 2012. So it looks like over the next few years, we should be starting

to see because changes take longer than forecast. Number two, change when it happens is even bigger than the wider wildest forecast. So they're saying, I wonder how big blockchain is. Economy is going to be. Maybe it'll be another trillion dollar economy or maybe it will be like the stock market and it'll be worth trillions of dollars. Who knows? Number three, winners are hard to forecast early.

Is it Ethereum? Is it Bitcoin? Is it something else? Well, at least if you go by this, it's probably neither of those two, but something else that's coming in the future. Number four, the early adopter is critical, but totally different. The geeks who adopted it, maybe the Bitcoin, Jesus, Vitalik, but Terran. Those are the early entrepreneurial adopters. The pioneers. Just like they were for Internet and

social media, perhaps. So, but if you look at the users, the kind of users that use Bitcoin early on, pirates, thugs, rapists, whatever else that, right? The people who are trying to money laundering. So those were the early adopters were critical, but totally different from the mainstream. When it ever become mainstream, we don't know. But whatever that mainstream is that'll show up in the future. According

to these five lessons are going to be different from the early adopters. Okay. And finally, there's a valuation crash, friends. Maybe that's what this crypto winter is. There has been a huge valuation crash of the crypto economy, right? From the early hype to the eventual value creation. So stay tuned. So those are the five lessons that I got from this friend of mine. I don't know

him. I did not know him before this, but he's now my new friend, Bernard Lund. And very sensible blog article. It's called how to make money in the blockchain economy, but Bernard Lund, so those are the five lessons that I read, the way I read them and applied them to the blockchain economy. Hope that helps. Have a great day. See you back soon.