Source: Crypto Waves: The Crypto Lark Podcast
Bitcoin - You Won't Believe Who's Buying & Selling
Mar 23, 2020 · 17m 45s
Today, in crypto Bitcoin is still over $5,000, which is nice. Is Bitcoin really uncorrelated to the stock markets? The US government may air drop money to everyone as the economic insanity continues. And OTC data and on chain data shows just who the buyers and the sellers of Bitcoin are right now. The answers will surprise you, so make sure to stick around for that part of the
video. The crypto-lark. This is where you subscribe for all of the hottest and the latest happening out there in crypto land. Also, if you are new to crypto, welcome. Crazy time to join by the way. But if you're new to crypto and you're still working out on really all the basics of like, what is Bitcoin, how and where to buy Bitcoin, how to safely set up
a wallet, how to build a portfolio, all of that basic beginner stuff, then check out my course, Cryptocurrency Explained. So, Bitcoin today is holding above $5,000 at the time of recording. Obviously, it has been a crazy, crazy few days. But if we take a glass half empty approach, the price of Bitcoin is down 35% in the last week. Or we could take the glass half full
approach. Bitcoin is up around 40% from the bottom just a few days ago. Choose your bias. Now on the shorter time frames might have a bit of much needed hope to pack into our bongs. We could be setting up for an ascending triangle on the four hour chart, which is of course a bullish chart pattern. Now if it does play out, we could see that the
price of Bitcoin is up to $5,000. We could see a breakout in the next week for Bitcoin possibly even pushing us back up to the 8K area. Oh yeah, that's the good stuff Internet man. Put that hope in my bong. Now look, obviously the crisis is far from being over. So that ascending triangle could easily be invalidated. But on the bigger time frames, we are of
course still seeing a lot of grim scenarios. So over on the weekly, for example, we closed last week under the 200 week moving average, which is definitely an out-moment. And we are just starting this week's candle off. So obviously a lot can still happen. Fingers crossed, of course, that we can climb back over this key line to get a little bit more, you know, hope back
into the market. But closing under that 200 week moving average on the one hand, not good. But on the other hand, it offers a very rare moment of extremely bearish market sentiment that could actually indicate a good buying opportunity. Bitcoin will not stay under the 200 week moving average for a long time. So it is an opportunity for some people to get involved. Also, the Bitcoin
fear and greed index is at 8 currently, which is still showing that there is extreme fear in the Bitcoin market. So again, we are going to be able to see the market. Time for interesting buying opportunities. Okay, let's dig into the stories now. So yesterday, the S&P 500 closed down 12%. Only two days in the last 100 years have been worse than yesterday. Once was back
in 1987 and once back in 1929. So that provides a bit of perspective on the current state of really how bad the markets have been for you. Bitcoin, meanwhile, bottomed out at 4,350 on the market. So, I think the price of Bitcoin was $1,500,000 on Monday and topped out at 5,500 today, a 24% move up. Definitely nice to see such a strong move from Bitcoin while
traditional markets have taken such a hit. But actually as the price of Bitcoin has been moving back up today, the S&P 500 was also up around 6%. But wait a second, Mark, I thought Bitcoin was uncorrelated to the stock markets. Well, yeah. Bitcoin traditionally has a low level of core value. So, the correlation to the stock markets, but just take a look at this chart here
and you'll see that at this time, the correlation movement is higher than usual. Now, the orange line on this chart is the S&P 500. The candles course are Bitcoin. So you can see there has been a strong level of correlation between these markets. Now, why is this happening? Well, Bitcoin in the short term was not totally immune to the general panic we've seen spreading across all
of the markets. The reason is that Bitcoin has been steadily infiltrated by institutional investors over the last year. So we've been talking about that a lot, a lot on this channel. Now, these investors, they remain highly exposed to a wider array of assets, particularly of course traditional asset. This is also why serious Bitcoiners, they're just holding on to their coins. Because this is all just up
and down for them in the long term vision of Bitcoin, more on that in a minute actually. But for many of the institutional guys, Bitcoin's just another thing to invest in. They treat it like, kind of a risky stalker, something like that. Remember, they're not here for the financial revolution. They're just here to make a buck, which is fine, but that's the reality of these guys.
So of course, they dumped it as soon as the market hit a big trouble spot. Now, this is both good and bad because it means that yes, it is real that big money players showed up last year, early into these here maybe. And while they may have dumped Bitcoin now, those same big money people, they'll be back without a doubt. The interest for Bitcoin from traditional
players is very, very real. So does that invalidate the thesis that Bitcoin is an uncorrelated asset? Yes and no. Yes, because there is an obvious correlation in the short term. No, because long term Bitcoin has shown a lower level of correlation. Does not mean it's completely uncorrelated. This means it shows a lower level of correlation compared to other assets. Remember, this is a global crisis. Everything
has been going crazy. I mean, just look like the bond yields, for example, they've just been getting crushed and along with everything else. There has been huge fluctuations in really what is one of the world's safest safe havens, the bonds. So unsurprising, Bitcoin gets hit too. Even gold has not been immune from all of the current shocks we see taking place across the markets. Gold has
lost around a trillion dollars in market cap so far this month, losing around 15% in value at the peak of fear just a few days ago. The entire crypto market for comparison, only lost around a hundred billion dollars over the same time frame. I still see Bitcoin as gold 2.0. Remember, the back in 2008, gold took just an absolute beating as well and it eventually moved
up to recover at a quicker rate than the S&P 500 did. Now, check out this chart that I got from the guys over at crypto briefing. Now, the chart is, of course, the price of one ounce of gold versus the S&P 500. The time frame here is 2007 to 2011. You can see gold actually dropped by 32% before it then rallied hard. The chances for Bitcoin
to do something similar seem very, very real to me. When investors need cash, they sell everything. They sell gold, they sell Bitcoin, they sell their car, they sell their grandma. It doesn't matter. Tough decisions get made and they rush in to cash. But those same investors, they will buy back in in the future as well. The last one here, long grandma futures. That's going to 100x
guys. Now, by the way, Fimex has now started offering gold futures along with their other crypto products. Of course, Bitcoin and Chainlink. They are now, of course, still running their 112 dollars sign up bonus too. So there's a link down below. We can learn more if you want to long or short gold over there on Fimex. Of course, Fimex is only for experienced traders. So do
keep that in mind. Now, moving on, the US government has announced more free money, more free money to try to stop the ship from sinking. Bit different with this free money, though. You'll see why. Treasury, Secretary Steve Manuchin pitched the idea of giving out $250 billion in checks to be sent out at the end of April. That is about $1,000 per American adult with a second
set of checks totaling $500 billion to be sent out four weeks later if there is still a national emergency. This is just helicopter money. Guys, just coming in addition to all of the rate cuts that we've seen, of course, rates are now at zero in the US. $500 billion put up for the repo market says overnight liquidity for those. Yes, the repo crisis has not disappeared.
In fact, it's now more acute, more serious than it has ever been. The Fed is promising $500 billion a day for the banks for the repo markets. Plus, they threw it an extra $500 billion on Monday night and extra $500 billion on Tuesday night. They're creating so much money so quickly. I can't even keep track of all the billions and the trillions that they're just print.
Print, print, print. It's crazy. This is funny money. Really, how is this like any different than monopoly money at this point? Massive inflation is happening right before your eyes. It's extraordinary times you living in. Cash, it is actually a false safe haven. I know sure that the dollar bill still says one on it, but the purchasing power of $1 is getting less and less every year.
Right now, it's getting wrecked. Long term, this is going to have a big effect on the dollar. The absolute lion's share of this money is going to banks into big corporations, the same companies who spent the last decade doing stock buybacks instead of, you know, building a rainy day fund. Companies like Boeing, they have been massively irresponsible. And of course, in line for money as well,
is the banks who gambled hard and massively over leveraged themselves again, again, funny that the same crooks who faced zero consequences for their crimes. And these back in 2008 are back at it again, doing criminal gambling of the global economy. These guys get most of the money. But I guess to see a few crumbs being thrown down to the peasant. So I guess there is that.
Remember, it is socialism for the rich in capitalism for the poor. That is the system. And Bitcoin, Bitcoin fixes this. Bitcoin's value over the long term comes in part from its ability to resist inflation, to remain scarce. And you have a set monetary policy, you know, mathematics. It's amazing stuff. Now as time goes on, of course, more and more confidence will be lost in fiat. We've
seen people all over the world lose faith in fiat. Just because you're in the dollar or something else doesn't mean that you're not in a slow motion train wreck. You're just in a bit of a slower motion train wreck than other countries. And then of course there is Bitcoin, the steady survivor, 1800 Bitcoin a day, rain or shine. And less than two months that becomes 300
Bitcoin a day. And in four years, 450 Bitcoin, 21 million max ever contrast that with the trillions of dollars, the governments around the world are printing just in the last week. Anyway, long story short, Bitcoin is superior money. Now let's move on to our next story here. Reports are coming in from OTC deaths in Europe, Asia and Russia. The Bitcoin is currently selling at high premiums
all across those deaths as much as seven. And the interesting thing is that it's not sellers, but buyers that are flooding in to make purchases. There is an influx of new big money buyers that are looking to take positions in Bitcoin. Apparently, $5,000 is proving to be a very attractive price point for these big money buyers. And my friends over at Caleb and Brown have also
confirmed those are some very interesting statistics for me. Of course, they're the extra. You released crypto broker, they gave me some really cool stats to share with you. So in the last week, Caleb and Brown had more institutional registrations than they have ever had crazy. And you'll be shocked by this next statistic. There are current by cell ratio for crypto. 98% by and just 2% selling.
Yes, you heard that right. Let that sink in for a minute. More is more. And 98% of their transactions in the last week have been by orders that is insane. As we always say, follow the money. Look what the big boys are doing with their money right now. They are buying Bitcoin. But of course for there to be a buyer, there must be a seller. So
the question becomes, well, a whole new group of big money buyers out there looking to scoop up lots of Bitcoin bargains. Who the heck is selling all their Bitcoin to the man? What's going on out there? Well, it surely isn't me and it's probably not most of you either. But according to on chain data, it seems to mostly be people who bought in over the last
year. So check this out. On March 11th, about 281,000 Bitcoin that had been untouched for at least 30 days. They were revived and moved. But only 4,131 Bitcoin that had been untouched for at least one year. This quite clearly shows that the majority of the recent sell activity has come from investors who have been in Bitcoin for less than a year. It seems a lot of
new Bitcoins or maybe people who are just short term holders. They have given up. They have capitulated the wild Bitcoin roller coaster. It's just been too much for them. They got shaken out. The long term holders though, that's what's very interesting. Those guys, they are chilling. And actually the long term holding Bitcoin addresses seem to be real Bitcoin believers. And they're actually practicing the stack, sat
and chill mantra because on chain data actually shows the dresses which have been holding for more than a year actually increased their total. Now this is only a very, very, very slight increase, but an increase never the less. Now you can see that represented here on the age bands chart. Now this shows that the stacks of long term holders have actually been increasing slowly over time.
Now all that being said, a lot of risk still remains in basically all of the markets at the moment as the full economic impacts of the global world. So we're currently seeing there only just starting to be felt. So please do tread carefully out there. We are an uncharted waters. And we could be in for a lot more pain in spite of all this economic stimulus
we see going on. But I feel like all this economic and sandy that we're currently seeing, it's really setting us in motion for probably what is going to be the biggest bull run in Bitcoin's history. And in a lot of ways, I've never been more bullish on Bitcoin and really just the wider crypto economy. The perfect storm event of complete fiscal insanity. And once the initial
panic actually subsides and things start to get back to a bit more of normal, then I have a feeling that Bitcoin will do the quite opposite of chilling and might go kind of crazy. I still totally believe that $100,000 Bitcoin, that is in play. But I want to know from you, do you think that Bitcoin is still going to go to $100,000? I still feel like
Bitcoin, it has no top because fiat has no bottom. But I want to know from you, do you think that we're still going to see such insane valuations for Bitcoin in the long term or is the dream over? Let me know about down below in the comment section. Thank you so much for watching today's video. I hope that you're staying safe out there. Hope that you're
taking care of your mental health. Remember, this is a short term event. Be chillin, guys. Be chillin. Take care. Thanks for watching. Make sure to hit that thumbs up button. Peace, the almighty YouTube gods. And of course, subscribe to the channel if you are new around here. Long live the blockchain. And peace out to next time. Bye.
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