Source: Crypto Waves: The Crypto Lark Podcast
$5,000,000 Bitcoin Insane or Inevitable Dollar In
Apr 7, 2020 · 41m 44s
Welcome everyone, it's the CryptoLark super super excited to have on today Carl from the moon Carl how's it going man? I'm super fine. I'm in Thailand enjoying life and Yeah, everything is super fun. How about you man? Do an awesome do an awesome. Yeah, before we kind of start clicked record here We were talking about Thailand and of course, it's an amazing country for any of
you haven't visited but Carl What a great choice for somewhere to sit out the apocalypse Yeah, yeah exactly. I mean, I'm here with like-minded people, crypto people entrepreneurs and yeah, it is it is the perfect place to be a quarantine and be isolated because it's just the paradise here and I'm super happy and Yeah, I'm happy that I got stuck here of all places in the
world. Yeah, it's a good spot for a digital nomad to wash ashore so to speak but we're not talking about Thailand in this episode of the CryptoLark what we're actually talking about of course is Bitcoin We're talking about the Bitcoin having long-term price targets the Bitcoin death cross is it even relevant the money printing that we see going on around the world even before but nothing
very obvious We've sometimes we've seen a Bitcoin be somehow linked to the S&P and sometimes more towards gold and but nothing really obvious just like a little bit back and forth however now in the big initial shock in this crisis with we have seen clear correlation between basically everything Bitcoin included and I think it's not very surprising because of the fact that when you see these
massive amounts of billions and even trillions of dollars just evaporating from different markets then people are losing money they're losing and they have to cover these losses by selling other assets and and it's not really a choice it's more of a they have to sell and they have to sell things that they don't even want to sell so that's why we also saw gold get an
initial shock to the downside when the down and the S&P started to fall so and this is something that I actually been talking about on my channel and also in different interviews I even recorded an interview with AIPC just like I don't know one week before the big crash where I talked about how I think it's possible that Bitcoin will actually sell off in the initial
stages of the crisis because of this fact that people are selling everything they can to cover other big losses so to me it's not very surprising it's still a little bit sad of course we would love to see Bitcoin act as this safe haven like Bitcoin right now but I think it's maybe a little bit too much to ask for to to have Bitcoin as a
safe haven now because Bitcoin is still seen as a risky asset in the ice of the big mainstream and the big institutional investors I mean sure it's limited in supply it's decentralized and all of this but it's still speculative in the ice of the mainstream of course we're extremely bullish and we're not selling but these guys they have to be convinced and I think that now
in the market the big initial stages of the crisis I think that they're just gonna they're gonna sell what they what they don't understand and those people that just diversify it into Bitcoin those people that hold maybe $10,000 worth of stocks and then $500 worth of Bitcoin they will just liquidate Bitcoin immediately it's just that's how it is so these people are selling the weak hands
so to speak and I think that it's actually a good thing for Bitcoin to shake off all of this speculation and so actually I think this is a good thing for the longer term but now in the short term of course it's it's not fun to see the big companies go down and I think most people in crypto like everyone did not expect this even the
bears even the ones that are bearish on Bitcoin did not seem as big as coming to go they didn't even get that bearish some of them you know yeah yeah so so everyone what's called by surprise here and I guess we can call the blacks one events or whatever but yeah crazy times it definitely crazy times it this de-risking of portfolios in a way it's almost
kind of a good thing because what it says is that over the last year to two years Bitcoin has actually been able to capture that institutional interest that we always talk about the fidelity customers they came in right the Wall Street guys they came in they are these guys were all buying Bitcoin and unfortunately the reality of when you invite those kind of investors to the
party is that as soon as things start going so they drop everything they're not here for the mission for the revolution for wider financial freedom or even seeing Bitcoin as something more than just like basically something else they can trade and make money off of yeah exactly so I think that all of these people they are probably gone now because when you see something like Bitcoin
a weird little internet coin dump like 50% in just a few days I think you're selling if you don't know what Bitcoin is I mean you must sell if you don't know what it is at that point then you're stupid right so I think that but us who made the research we who understand Bitcoin we know that this this short term volatility is just the price
changing the fundamentals are still there Bitcoin is still in my opinion the best form of money in the world just like it was a few weeks ago and it will continue to be so in the future so nothing has changed only the price changed in the short term and people's perceptions of how good Bitcoin is based on the US dollar value going up and down and
you're right the fundamentals of Bitcoin the same today as they were a month ago and there's a good fundamentals now speaking of things with bad fundamentals the money printers have been going insane over the last few weeks I mean I started talking on my channel about the repo crisis you know six months ago or something when it started happening that repo crisis of course is still
going but we've seen that so much money be promised or printed already to be thrown into the global economy I mean we've got 6.2 trillion from the US 2.2 trillion for direct stimulus 4 trillion for liquidity for the markets European Central Bank's promising 750 billion there's a new proposal by President Trump to have $2 trillion for a construction project across America which that's all going to
be new printed money it's going to be crazy the IMF has said that they're willing to put up 2.5 trillion this is all funny money is this coming from a savings account this is all just hey let's make some more money it's wild how much money can they print? yeah I think that what they're approving now is that the answer to that question is how much
they want it's unlimited it's obvious by this point that the printing presses they will continue to print and it's insane seeing these prices trillions of dollars being printed and this is unprecedented we have never seen this before this is I mean we have seen a few countries of course end up in high inflation but now we're seeing a global phenomenon this is not just one country
this is for the first part it's the US the dollar which is the world reserve currency I mean that is insane I mean of course Venezuela is involved we've seen this before but now that we see the world reserve currency the currency that is actually backing up all of the other currencies getting printed in the trillions of dollars that is scary because I mean who knows
what's going to happen we haven't seen this before we haven't I mean it's an experiment I mean people call Bitcoin an experiment but I think this is the real experiment this is something that is completely unprecedented and I think it's obvious also that the central bankers and the economists they also have no idea what they're doing because they it feels like they're just print their printing
and doing the interest rates changes just as they go it doesn't really seem like they I mean the financial crisis of 2008 was of course is spurred on and created by low interest rates and increasing debts and the only thing they did after was actually just do the exact same mistake again but even more they just yeah lower interest rates down to 0% before 2008 it
was just 1% and just for a short period of time but now it was 0% for a very long period of time so we've seen record low interest rates for a record long period of time we haven't seen that before and so yeah I think that the world central bankers they have created a debt monster that simply I can't see how you can solve it it's
not possible to solve in a undramatic way this this will be resolved in a journey dramatic way and what they've been doing so far is just push this problem into the future by just increasing debt it's just like let's say I have a credit card bill of $10,000 instead of like it won't solve the problem if I go and take another credit card and if I
pay off the first credit card with even more credit card debt it doesn't solve the debt problem it just pushes the debt further into the future and creates even more debt because all debts there is interest due to be paid on this debt and yeah the debt level is already saying much worse than 2008 and that's why I've been saying on my channel for a few
years now that I believe that the problem that we will be faced with now in the future soon will be much worse than 2008 and it's it's potentially so that it might be even worse than the great depression of the yeah after this talk market scratch of 1929 and I agree I mean I agree it's it's crazy it's what you actually see this big picture and
understand that from the central banks perspective everything you know the only tool they have is a hammer and everything they see is a nail right and that's that's all they can do is just print more money print more money print more money and we I think a lot of people in Western countries will feel very safe like oh but I live you know in America so
I'm the dollar the dollars really strong or I live in England and you know the the British pounds strong or I live in Europe and the euro is going to be strong like just because we haven't seen hyper inflation hit one of the world's major fiat currencies doesn't mean that we won't rewind Europe rewind Europe 50 60 years we saw major economies hit massive hyper inflation
I mean I was seeing in the 30s with the Y-MAR Republic I think that had massive hyper inflation to the point of like Venezuela it was insane it can happen to anyone anywhere the fiat system is an experiment modern monetary theory is insane the banks have no idea what they're doing at these guys they're all just looting as much as they can given as much as
they can to the corporations everyone's having a great time taking all this free money except for everyone that's not going to be able to do it. It's not you know that small club. Yeah it is completely insane what we're seeing and I think we are witnessing history being written and yeah based on the fact that we have not seen this before and and just like I
said people don't expect this to happen on a big global scale but I mean ever since 1971 no currencies in the world are backed up by gold anymore they are all backed up by the dollar which in turn is backed up by nothing so yeah it's insane how we got to this place and I also know that of course a lot of people back in the
70s or not a lot of people but some people they pointed out the problems of going on to a fiat's currency standard and interesting thing is that these people they thought that this would collapse in the next 10 years next 20 years and this is just going to be completely but yeah I mean these people have been continuously saying that this is going to collapse and
I mean even the past 10 years I think the thing is that it's very interesting how far they have gone. Going so low in the interest rates and negative interest rates and I guess what I'm saying is it's crazy how much they have been able to push this into the future and just kick the can down the road. This sinking ship should have been sinking long
time ago but they just make it an even bigger even bigger problem and the horrible part is that the more you push it into the future the bigger the debts the bigger the problem and the bigger the fall. So... Well over 250 trillion globally right now for debt for everyone out there and the audience who may not know. I mean US loan they've they're closing and
I think on 24 trillion here in the near future. That's just government debt. We talk about consumer debt as well the whole picture. 250 trillion in debt globally. That is you cannot pay that. That would take generations to pay this debt back and pay we are paying it back to the banks the central banks it's insanity. Yeah I think I think what is needed is sadly
just a big reset and just a big default of all debts because to create something new I think we have to first get rid of the bad because I think it's impossible to save this it's it's just it has gone too far and these debt levels they are they're too high and and of course so what you have to do is basically let all of the
bad corporations default you need to let the bankruptcy happen because many of these businesses should not be able to exist. They exist only because of cheap credit low interest rates so they can borrow currency for cheap and invest in a things that should not well in for example if if I invest in a tractor for my farm and my my loan cost is a hundred dollars
for one year then I need to make at least a hundred and fifty dollars that year to to well gain a profit from from this loan. But if you lower interest rates let's say the borrowing cost is just two dollars now then I can borrow a much worse tractor that will only generate much less money and basically if interest rates were to come back to normal
levels then my business would not be a profitable business so it's like a company that shouldn't really exist. So when you when you lower interest rates and I mean you're in you're incentivizing bad business bad business models unprofitable business and that's the problem now we have a lot of businesses that simply should not exist and not only bad business businesses also good businesses like Apple and
these other very very profitable corporations they are also incentivized to borrow money and and potentially invest in not very productive things like buying back shares for example. Oh that's crazy man stock buybacks it's wild and the thing with these corporations is that they know they can do it because 2008 proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that these corporations are too big to fail and that
no matter how we responsible they are no matter how much they should fail the government won't let them fail they'll get a socialist bailout instead of letting capitalism just work its way and look this is an extraordinary situation but I feel like this is this whole crisis right now is just a big scapegoat for what is really a cancerous economy and fiscally responsible corrupt companies getting
more free money. Yeah exactly just take bowing for example I might be wrong on the number but I think they they are they took somewhere along with like 10 billion dollars so without taking too much seriously the number but they took a lot of money and they bought back shares ever since 2008 now if they instead of just buying back shares saved all of this money
for a rainy day then maybe they wouldn't be in as much of a trouble today as they are now they would probably still be in issues trouble don't get me wrong but this money would help them but now they basically they don't have this money they just bought back shares so when you buy back shares you're not increasing productivity at all you're just propping up the
the share prices and and this irresponsible way of of doing business should be punished but it's not it's actually further incentivized like you said by by bailing them out and giving them even more free cash and this is a big moral hazard because now in the future even more corporations these big two-faint to bank to fail corporations they know that they can do even more of
this really irresponsible stuff so I mean I can't see I can't see like it's just so insane how everything is the world run by madman it's it's absolutely crazy all these big success they're all broke they're all broke everyone's an eye-watering debt everyone's broke they they're like the giant corporations they're live and paycheck to paycheck just like their employees the only difference is they're live and
paycheck to paycheck because they're insane greed of buying back stocks all this stuff and then it's we could go on about this stuff for hours but I want to move on to a slight different topic here should you keep your money in the bank I think that we all saw that video from the FDIC last week where ladies like keep your money in the bank it's
all safe and had this really sappy music and stuff playing that to me says holy cow they're actually worried about people doing a bank run and we've seen capital controls in countries all the world just this week we got reports out of Egypt that Egypt has implemented very strict capital controls on people so people are allowed to get a portion of their money out of the
bank right remember when it's in the bank it's not your money anymore it's the banks money do you think that there is a real possibility that we could see bank runs in major economies yeah for sure I think it's eventually inevitable that people realize the fundamental flaws of the current monetary system the fact that it's a fractional reserve system where banks they only hold maybe one
or two percent at most of the reserves everything else is just credit it's just currency created out of thin air by the banks the private banks and when this when this is unveiled then of course people will want to take out their money because how this probably will start is that the banks will do this yeah currency controls they will say you can only withdraw $500
per month and then it's only $100 maybe and then it's just yeah they will do lower lower and eventually you won't be able to take out money and and yeah that's when everyone will realize that the money was never there in the first place so and that's of course a a very very dangerous thing because that means that the whole currency system we have today would
collapse because 95% or something of all the currency that we use is the private banks money it's their created currency it's the credit so if all of that evaporates then then we have a massive deflation going on where all of this currency supply will just shrink so yeah this inflation that we've seen for the past decades will just be yeah it will be a huge deflation
you know I've seen a few people in my comment section saying things like all I know I try to tell people what work about all the money printing and Bitcoin and stuff like this and they just look at me like crazy and my response has been these are the people who when things go down they're gonna be the one standing in line for 12 hours to
get 50 bucks out of the bank to buy a loaf of bread because the money will be sold. We were so little at that point and that might sound dramatic but just go and ask people in Argentina in Ukraine in Lebanon in Egypt in Zimbabwe and on and on and on and on and on and on. Fiat is not the safety net that we think it
is but we got to talk about Bitcoin we got about to play a minute in the video now we got to talk about the coin Carlos this is got to do we got to do it so the Bitcoin death cross this is just played out on the moving averages the other day do you give this a lot of weight do you think that this is showing
that we're gonna really be moving into a bit of a downtrend or anything that's gonna death cross? So actually I don't really put too much significance to these death cross and golden crosses and of course a death cross is when the 50 day moving average moves below the 200 day moving average and the golden crosses the exact opposite and the traders around the world they use
this as a buy or sell signal in. Actually if you do go back in the Bitcoin history and if you did buy and sell on the death in golden crosses then you actually make money over time so. That should tell you that you should maybe give some some credibility to these death in golden crosses but personally I'm not trading or investing based on the golden and
death crosses i tried to look at at other indicators but I still think that we should. Look at it and take note of it because. If a hundred thousand people look at it and give it significance then it might be a self fulfilling prophecy so that's why I always bring it up I always make a video about it and I always tell people that this is
the previous performance and this does not guarantee future performance but we can take note of it and we can use this event in this we can take this indicator in a basket of other indicators and try to get like a confluence of indicators but personally I don't really think that the death cross is going to be a big problem for Bitcoin and I don't think that
the death cross is going to bring us down to one K or something just like the golden cross that happened just a couple of weeks earlier did not bring us up to any high insane prices so yeah I'm a little bit I don't give it too much significance I guess that's what I'm saying. There you go. Now back on black Thursday we saw the price a
bit coin get down to around $3800 approximately depending much. Change we're looking at do you think that that was the bottom or do you think that we could see lower lows coming in as the sort of crisis grinds on. So I think that now that we're seeing this big financial crisis happening I think that all bets are really off I think now just like we talked
about earlier this is unprecedented time to have never seen this before Bitcoin has never been around any financial crisis it was created during the last financial crisis and has basically just been growing in a big bull market so I think that's it's very hard to to know for sure what will happen with Bitcoin especially as we see this stock markets potentially fall even further which I
really believe we will we will see I think that all this money printing stuff will not help but I would say that if I were to or if I had to make a bet then I would say that I think that we did bottom I think 3.8K was probably the bottom but I do want to make a big disclaimer and say that I actually thought that
the 6.4K level was the bottom before we broke down below that so that should tell you also like we are living in unprecedented times and these volatile moves are very very hard to predict so but we did see a huge wick down below the 200 weekly moving average and usually when we see a massive sell off like that with big volume that usually marks the bottom
it also usually marks the top just like the $20,000 top we saw huge volume come in and so that's a good sign that was a big capitulation candle so a lot of people capitulated and just like I said earlier I think all of the weekends most of them must be most of them must be a... must have been shaken out now the weekends that are not
shaken out they probably couldn't sell for some reason maybe they were trapped on an island without internet but they I think they would sell if they could because that was a really horrible drop and yeah like we talked earlier if you don't understand Bitcoin then I think you sold so that's a good sign this means that I think there should not be a lot of selling
pressure from now on and also the 200 weekly moving average has never been broken in Bitcoin history and what I'm talking about now is we have never seen a weekly decisive close below we did actually see a small weekly close now below but we came straight back up again and we have never seen Bitcoin basically come down and for a longer period of time we have
never seen Bitcoin come down and trade below this 200 weekly for any longer period of time so I think that's a good sign that we're still above this very very key macro structurally important trend line so everyone who's not aware of the 200 weekly goats trading view pull out the 200 weekly and you will see and just go back in history you will see that it
was we always got supported by it. Yeah I've been talking about the 200 week moving average here on the channel so hopefully most of people watching today will be aware of that but yeah it was I think a rare opportunity actually for the buyers out there we did see a lot of buyers come in around the $5,000 price mark according to the data that we're now
see coming off of exchanges and to you know the OTC brokers and stuff that I've talked to they've been saying that yeah we actually had a lot of interest when Bitcoin was around $5,000 right people were interested in buying it around that price which is very interesting I think for a lot of the investors that we're able to get in and get that price that was
a potential you know opportunity of the year to buy Bitcoin under the 200 week moving average I mean that's quite significant because it is such a significant line in the sand price wise for Bitcoin like you said though all bets are off you know it could be a wild wild year we still have a lot of crisis to play out in front of us on employment
numbers could go through the roof we can see corporations collapsing I think they'll print enough money to you know stop all that stuff but still tread tread carefully out there everyone yeah now I want to talk a little bit about your shorter term price predictions so where do you see Bitcoin going you know maybe before the Bitcoin having a potentially what do you see is the
impact of the Bitcoin having if any on the price action yeah I think that now with the recent things we've seen people have almost forgotten a little bit about the Bitcoin having we don't really see people talk a lot about it anymore because people are very bearish and usually when you're bullish in bearish times then you get a lot of hate and people just people are
really depressed about the prices because if they didn't lose money in the Bitcoin market they lost money in the stock market then if they didn't lose money there then they lost money somewhere else so people globally have lost a lot of money and but I think that the Bitcoin having is a huge thing and I really try to put a lot of emphasis on this because
this is one of the fundamentals of Bitcoin the fact that the inflation rate will be cut in half every four years until the inflation rate eventually reaches 0% and that is unique for Bitcoin we had there is no other asking the world that will eventually have a 0% inflation meaning that there will never be anything else created beyond this limited supply of 21 million so that
is unique and this makes Bitcoin actually the most scarce asset on the planet much more scarce than gold and the most scarce diamond out there I mean gold has an inflation rate of 1.6% per year or something like that and even the most scarce diamond in the world you can always find more of them and if the diamond goes up in value 10X then people will
be incentivized to find more of these diamonds so the inflation rate will go up even higher but this cannot happen with Bitcoin because even if Bitcoin goes up to 20,000 tomorrow there's something called this difficulty adjustment and most of these people watching probably know about it but the difficulty to mine Bitcoin will adjust it automatically and this is something that can only happen of course in
a digital world because if gold becomes more expensive tomorrow then there's nothing stopping people from going out and mining more gold there's no difficulty adjustment it's more profitable to mine gold so they won't so that's a cool part about Bitcoin and now the having is coming up and now we're seeing this big inflation rate getting cut in half and now I think the next what is
the next inflation rate will be like 1.6% now it's like 3.6% around 1.8% yeah roughly and I mean that puts the Bitcoin inflation below the official target of central banks will approximately 2% so now in that case Bitcoin is already officially a better store of value technically and fundamentally than or theoretically then Fiat and we know of course that the inflation rate of Fiat is much
higher than 2% it's probably 5,6,7,8% it's much higher but I think it's very interesting and also this puts the inflation rate of Bitcoin very close to the inflation rate of gold and of course the gold market cap is what is it like 100 times higher than Bitcoin something like that? Something like that around 8 trillion probably currently with price increases we've seen recently 8.5 trillion even
gold's been on bit of run recently so that gives you a bit of perspective everyone yeah so only based on the scarcity only based on the scarcity Bitcoin is extremely under value when you compare to other scarce assets like gold but of course scarcity isn't everything demand is demand is the important thing for money and what I think is that all of the key properties of
Bitcoin that makes it a very good for money will drive demand so it's not only the scarce the most scarce assets in the world but it's also decentralized just like gold but unlike gold it's also digital so you can send it digitally to end up in the market anyone in the world at any point in time no bank days and all of that so all of
this will create demand and that is the most important thing for money and I mean I can talk about this for hours but I really believe that Bitcoin is the best form of money in the world and it is better than gold and I mean gold has been the best form of money for thousands of years but now that we live in a digital world with
digital payments and a digital economy we simply need a digital money that is just how it is and gold has been perfect for thousands of years but now we need something else but I still think that gold and Bitcoin will complement each other so I still think that gold is it is still the safest way to to to hide your wealth but Bitcoin is the this
wild card now that can really get this leveraged effect and especially if we see a big currency crisis which I am expecting in the following years. And one of the exciting things about Bitcoin is that gold is relatively a very established one not relatively it's a very very established asset right we've had millennia for price discovery and of course we've had 50 years of price discovery
with gold in a fiat unbacked paper money world whereas Bitcoin Bitcoin is only you know just a little over a decade old we're still in the early price discovery stages of a totally unique asset in terms of what it is right so in 10 years time this is what I think a lot of Bitcoin investors are missing they're looking oh I'm not going to make money
out tomorrow oh I lost 5% it's time to sell like look farther down the road where's Bitcoin going to be in five years or 10 years I mean 2030 for Bitcoin imagine that I think a lot of Bitcoin holders can't even imagine that actually still owning Bitcoin at that point but by that point by I think a 2032 the Bitcoin block reward goes under one Bitcoin
per block I mean that is a goal right there hold your Bitcoin at least until 2030 potential way beyond that because we are in early price discovery stage is what are multiple Bitcoin having is actually going to do when we compound this effect over years not days or weeks or months. Yeah exactly and not only that I think that's not going to be a big thing
that the value in Bitcoin doesn't really actually come from Bitcoin itself I think the value of Bitcoin comes from the the floss of the current monetary system because if this monetary system was perfect then there would be no need for gold if we could trust banks and if they always did the responsible thing then we wouldn't need Bitcoin we wouldn't even need gold we could just
use this paper money and we could use that and if they guarantee that they will never print more and they will never manipulate interest rates then they will never print more than the money. But as we've seen time and time again whenever we give over the power to governments and banks to to control the currency supply and interest rates then it always ends in disaster and
we're seeing it unfolding now once again and very enliased the value of Bitcoin it's a way to cut away all of this third party and all of this this central banking because it's fundamentally dangerous to to leave this so Bitcoin has no third party risk no default risk meaning that you're not dependent on someone else's balance sheet if I buy a stock then well if they
go bankrupt then my stock is not worth anything anymore so there's a default risk and even currency is having a default risk because the country can default and the currency could be worthless if they continue to print so. Yeah, so Bitcoin is unique in that sense because it's like gold but it's digital so I've been extremely bullish for Bitcoin long term because we are seeing the
monetary system very much going towards its end. It's quite obvious by now seeing these trillions of dollars being printed because it's not only dollars it's also euros and all of these other currencies and there's no way to reverse this. I mean they said back in 2008 that all of this was just temporary right but there was just nothing temporary about it at all they never believe
the bankers they lie it's what they do. Yeah, yeah and this time I don't even think that they will bother trying to convince us that this is temporary because they know that we are not going to believe it this time so they will just print and hope for the best and they will of course blame the the virus the the coronal break and say that this
is the reason for the printing and yeah so they can do everything under the radar it seems like no one is really paying attention I mean of course in the crypto space and in these these rounds we know what's happening but in the wider mainstream no one seems to be paying attention to the trillions of dollars and the extraordinary default risks we're seeing right now. I
think it's not that just not that they're not paying attention it's that they're paid not to pay attention we see the Omingling of financial interests all across these different organizations and it's it's shocking you know if you watch if you watch the there's an old saying there's if you if you read the newspaper you're misinformed or something like that's a paraphrase there's better quote out there
but but it's a great quote and it really just if you're if you're all of the only place to get the news from is you know CNN or the New York Times you're probably having a tough time interpreting reality because that now one final question for you for today and then we're going to wrap it up here. What is your long term I guess not super
not talking to me 30 right here but like top of the next cycle right where do you think Bitcoin's gonna end up how long is it gonna take before we see a new cycle peak and where do you think Bitcoin could be by the top of that cycle peak. So I think that it's very very possible that Bitcoin will do exactly what it's been doing like
four or five times already get these big hype cycles where more and more people jump in because of the fundamentals of Bitcoin and they research Bitcoin they realize that it is the best form of money in the world so they buy a Bitcoin this creates more demand because the prices going up and then eventually we see the mainstream jumping and that's when we see this big
bubble when even the neighbors of people start buying Bitcoin just because it's this new cool thing and these are the weak hands jumping in and they are the people that will push the price up extraordinary high just like when Bitcoin went to 20,000 and just like when Bitcoin went to a thousand dollars back in 2013 this has happened like four or five times before and I
think it's exactly this will happen again and this next bubble top I think I mean if you look at it technically and if you look at the chart and if you calculate the fact that we see these diminishing returns over time it seems like somewhere between a hundred thousand dollars and three hundred thousand dollars that seems to be a range where I think that we will
see the big next bubble pop and then I will expect another big correction of somewhere between 70 to 90 percent again just like we've seen all of the other previous hype cycle pops because all of these weak hands they basically get punished by the big correction there there needs to be a bear market after such a big hype cycle but yeah 100,000 dollars to 300,000 dollars
but that's only for the next hype cycle top I think that we will see more of these hype cycles. Oh yeah. Yeah I think they will not go on forever but I think that especially if we see people lose confidence in the dollar and in the Fiat currency system as a whole then people will be looking for alternatives and if they're looking for the best alternative
out there then they will find Bitcoin eventually and Bitcoin in my opinion is the best alternative based on all of the things I said earlier in the video and actually if you take a look at the value of all Fiat in the world then we're looking at a pool of money worth approximately 90 percent to 100 trillion dollars and let's just play with the idea that
Bitcoin which in my opinion is the best form of money in the world takes over the value of all the other bad money in the world then Bitcoin could be worth as much as 5 million dollars in the future calculated in today's money so yeah of course with inflation it could be a quadrillion dollars per Bitcoin but we don't want to see it we don't really
want to see that though because that means that there's an incredible economic pain and that we've got you know from Bobway world at that point yeah yeah it is yeah exactly a Bitcoin holder in that situation though in that situation yes gold and Bitcoin that's it a hundred thousand dollar Bitcoin and actually it really lines up well with obviously the stock to flow model the logarithmic
gross curve a Bitcoin I mean these these are showing that we are going to you know hit that hundred thousand dollar market the next cycle peak and if we look back on the stock to flow for the previous cycle peak we got to think about three times over approximately the cycle peak so the cycle peak so the cycle peak is going to be a lot more
cycle peak got up to about $20,000 at a time on the stock to flow model was around $6,000 I think so that was around three times more so seeing a $300,000 Bitcoin that would actually again have a good historical narrative to back it up yeah for sure it's it's basically just the trend and in trading and in investing maybe the first rule you learn about is
that the trend is your friend and Bitcoin has basically been doing nothing but go up in value for the past 11 years so so far so good I mean it's a good store of value if you if you calculate from the beginning and obviously if you go in the shorter time frame then on a weekly basis then Bitcoin is not necessarily good store of value actually
when you think about it the dollar is a better store of value right now on a weekly basis and on a daily basis but let's see what happens on a one-year basis five years ago five-year basis 20 years basis one with more trillions get printed and Bitcoin remains the exact same the fundamentals stay the same at that point I think that Bitcoin could easily prove itself
as a good store value maybe on the best store value in the world. There you go the best store value in the world long term game guys long term game Carl thank you so much for coming on and and having a chat taking a little bit of time out of your your time there in Thailand go have a swim man enjoy the nice weather and all
that cool stuff thank you so much for coming on the channel and sharing your insights with the community really really appreciate it. Thank you very much for having me great conversation this was really fun thank you
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