Ex-CIA operative breaks down what Putin should do next

Has become a bit of a fly around the world. Oh, it's not that day, though. It's not just the European Union it's Japan. It's sort of, you know, it's 45, I think what we are today than he was before all those events. I know. Well, you can't find the waterfr scene CNN chief international se correspondent Nick Paton Walsh is live for us in Kiev. Nick, let's

begin with projectio Do we have confirmation that officials at the Kremlin were tipped off that something w Not quite as acute as that. A European intelligence official I've spoken to says that they're aware of hints that there may have been prior k among the Russian security or military establishment that perhaps people knew. Perhaps they kept it to themselv didn't pass it on, wondering if it would

indeed succeed, and then maybe some people who were looking for the dent in Putin's prestige that this essentially generated. But it is still early. That official said there's still a lot of fog around these And The Wall Street Journal's reporting talks about part of this plan being to capture the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the Ukrainian chief of staff, very rigorous, some of as part of

an opening ph of this plan. And indeed, we've also heard from the National Guard head, Viktor Zomlot, of saying that th leaks from the negotiating camp ahead of this mutiny. All of this adds to the possibil that because we know Sergei Shoigu was in the souther of Rostov, that Prigozhin advanced upon, they may have hoped to try and capture him. We know, according to Prigozhin, that

Sho fled that city. He says, as a coward quote, on the late parts of Friday. So these things beginning to fit together, perhaps, but no evidence in the Wall Street Jour reports or that I've heard of this speci to capture. But frankly, if they're going to take down the Putin administration, detaining some key officials is sort of a And Nick, there is also now intense scrutiny

on another key official at the K The New York Times reporting that Sergei Sorokin had advance knowledge of last weekend's muti What does it say about support for Prigozhin and his attempted coup in the Kr It's important with all these re just to remind everybody that, look, we're into a golden moment here, frankly, for Western intel to try and find out what happene and who's turned

on who, but also not be that worried abo and just put out a whole load of stories potentially, which could set ally or enemy against each other inside the Kr So The New York Times clear that Sergei, sort of a kid who ran the Ukraine war earlier on this year, who was replaced, Yes. Is known to be close to Prigozhi had for knowledge. That doesn't necessarily

tally with his appearance on Friday on television telling people to stay down, stand down, to not join the Prigozhin revolt And we know that the Air Force which he commands were involved in trying to stop foreigners advanced on M So some sort of things to try and work out there certai But some of it and I don't think has been seen since the deal was struck

with Prigozhin to send him to Be And so this is all part of what Ukrainian officials here at the in beginning to see and that's Kremlin officials, military establishment members questioning each other, turning on each other, wondering whose loyalty they can now count upon and possibly trying to exploit t for their own personal, politica or even financial advantage. Remember, this is a pretty kleptocratic go so

people will be trying to get what they can out as they begin to see the facade of Putin's total control crumbling. Boris, it's such a fascinating point, especially as accusations mount about promotions and profiteering and this war. Nick Paton Walsh in Kiev, thank you so much, Jim. Yes, slightly kleptocratic. I like that description. The system there. All right. So what's going on he Let's talk to

someone who knows the former CIA chief of Russia operation, Steve Steve, good to have you on today Good to be here, Jim. So throughout this war, U.S. intelligence has been very forward leaning in terms of what hit shares publicly. It did so to expose Russian invasion plans, part of the invasion. It's done so to diffuse Russian attempts at false flag operations. And now you have this.

I wonder do you see a deliberate effort h by U.S. intelligence to sow discord inside the Kremlin? No. I can be that direct about it, b of course, it's probably within the realm of the certain to say that it would certainly benefit the United States and NATO's if there was more instability, more insecurity inside of Russia But right now, the U.S. intelligence community is focused on

collection. Certainly, we're prohibited by law and you simply cannot impact a U audience on that. So that's not to say that the Uk or that others couldn't try to spin the situati to increase the problems that are in Moscow. But if this reporting is accurat and I think we're going to see m reporting coming out, outlining what actually happened over the coming weeks, it does sort

of validate what I had thought previously, which is that Prigozhin didn't just wake up in the morni and say, I'm going to head to Mo and head north on the airport. You must have at least had one n Imagine tried to obtain a wink and a nod from key people inside the Kremlin to say, Look, at least we'll look the other wa The Belarus angle on

this is also fascinating and now begins perhaps to take on a different d as to why he went there. So Interesting stuff going on. It's going to continue to come o Think it set aside the Belarus question just for a moment. If we can describe your sense of what this means for Putin's l right now, because it almost doesn't matter who actually was involved to som

If Putin thinks they were involv or wants to demonstrate he's now in control. Are you looking at the ground gr being laid for a purge here? Want to eliminate potential enem but to to show he's still the bo Yeah, a lot of layers to this, J So let me try to provide some co So first, yeah, I think Putin is probably going to have to do

some things to sho at least the perception of weakn I would argue it's more than a perception. I think Putin is now weaker than he's been at any time in hi in his career. There is you can call it that. But, yeah, he may indeed push back and try to identify who was doing what during that coup attempt. The FSB, the Internal Security S which has

primary responsibility as a very busy couple of weeks and months ahead as they begin to sort this out. But also keep in mind that in the Western context, so, you know, we don't think of each other as usually trying to manipulate and try to find out whose side people are on in Russ That is, you know, that's almost at the genetic lev that happens. So, yeah,

there's going to be a lot of tes and a lot of trying to figure ou who's supporting who. But in the Russian context, you know, that's that's not quite as big of a dea But there is no doubt, Jim, as you alluded to earlier, that Putin is in a is in a weakened state. Yeah. You mentioned the Belarus angle because there had been some doub earlier

in the week as to whether he was there. Now, there's some satellite images, possibility of his his jet that is promotion's jet being on the ground. Tell us why you think the Belarus piece is important b we go So this is a fascinating thing because I think myself, certainl and probably some other Russia w as well, that long looked at Lukashenko as essentially nothing more than

sort of a governor as part of you know, Russia effe I mean, it's not really a sovereign state given the power that the Russian So Belarus. But if you start asking who benefits from what? So you ask why did provision kno go to Belarus? What would Lukashenko have gotten out of that? It's clear Putin, you know, wants to clear and get him away as soon as

well Why not just kill him? Because Putin usually does that. If this theory is true, it's fas because everybody wins. Putin gets him out of the out of the country and gets to live. And Lukashenko gets a guy who knows how to run And if the Wagner guys end up in then that's leverage against Mos for Lukashenko in the future. Because remember, the Russian army is

really busy in Ukraine these days. So, you know, it's possible Lukashenko could have said, hey, I'll take that because it gives me future leverage against Putin. It's really interesting subject. That's some Game of Thrones leve Remarkable. Steve Hall, I know you're going to keep watching closely. We are Thanks so much for joining.