Show #489: Bring On The Marlins

You're listening to Atlanta baseball talk, your weekly podcast for all things at Atlanta Braves. Welcome to Atlanta baseball talk show number 489. Today's Sunday, October 4, 2020. My name is Steve. I'm joined by both Hammy and Curtis and folks, please help out the show by telling your friends, sharing links and writing reviews. If you do, the braves will make it to the NLCS and those games

will get a sexy 4 p.m. So, hey, whoa, I'm usually in bed by then. All right, folks, and tonight's show, it is time for the NLDS, the bubble in Houston and the Miami Marlins, but first a quick break. So with a 5 to 1 victory in game one and a 2-0 shut out in game two, the upstart Marlins to care the Chicago Cubs, which two really

strong starts from Sandial, Contera and 6-0 Sanchez. And here we are guys, the matchup that most of us wanted. Do we all want this? I did. Yeah, well, I mean, all the other options being considered, yes. Yeah. So a best of five against the Marlins for a chance to go to the NLCS. So before we start breaking down the Marlins team, let's look at some of

the head-to-head matchup numbers from this season. So the braves, as we probably all know, finished the season 35 and 25. The Marlins finished the season four games back with the braves in the east with a 31 and 29 record. The braves played the Marlins 10 times, one six of those 10 games. And in those 10 games, the braves scored 68 runs to the Marlins 44. Now,

of course, 29 of those 68 runs, we know came in one game. The braves hit 17 homers to the Marlins 10. As we know, 14 of those homers came in that. That's not, that's not actually. It's Jordan Yamamoto, a starter. Is he, he make it to the postseason roster. I don't, I don't know. I don't think he's one of the starter. So the starters, ERA in

that matchup was 491 for the Marlins, 517 for the braves, not so shocking. The bullpen ERA was 869 for the Marlins to the braves 226. So right, these numbers are somewhat skewed, right? The braves score in the 29 runs. I mean, the braves starters ERA of 517 is in no way indicative of what they are going to throw, at least in the first three games against

the Marlins in the playoffs. Yeah. And of course, the same could be said about the Marlins somewhat too, right? Those guys are matured, six-dote and come up until August. You know, yeah. They're, sorry. They're in the bull, no, but you're right. And they're bullpen numbers. We'll talk about this. Tell a different story, right? I mean, they were, they're way low and a lot of the bullpen

numbers. But if you look at their core guys and what they did on the stretch, it's a different story. Yeah. But the things that stand out to me in those regular season numbers are the braves found away in six of the 10. And that is not to be ignored in my mind and that the bullpen numbers, at least on the braves side, they don't lie. You

know, the braves still have a huge, I would say, an advantage on the bullpen side. So we move from a best of three wildcard series format to a best of five. Braves are the home team for the first two, right? It's a two-two-one. So ham, with the need for more than three starters, you know, or the potential for, you know, of an additional one or two

bullpen starts or whatever, do you have any predictions on how the 28-man roster may change between the wildcard series and this one? I bet we don't, I bet Jacob Webb is not on the team and Bryce Wilson is maybe, I mean, I feel like we got to find a way to get Bryce Wilson on there. Because I don't know where that fourth or fifth start is

coming about. I don't want to step here. I think it is no question that Bryce Wilson's on. And so, I mean, and so who do you take off, right? I don't think you take off. I think you take off Grant Dayton and not Jacob Webb. Yeah, that's it. You've got a lot of lefties. He's the worst one out there. Yeah. But you're right. I mean, it's

either one of those guys, right? And I haven't really looked at, to be honest, the splits against, you know, Marlon Rides versus the lefties, but I don't know if that makes a difference. But yeah, we need Bryce Wilson on the lineup. Other than that, I mean, I think offensively, I like what we have, but that's the one thing I would do. I don't, I don't think

we need Newcombe. I don't think we need Tuky. No, I don't think we'll see either of those guys, but I would put money on Wascarri Noah. Yeah. Coming in to just because like if so, well, you know, we're going to talk about who's going to start games four and five. In a second, but I think that you know, it is a possibility. And I don't think

you touch the bullpen at that point. I think it's like Colverson or Camargo. I think those two guys are redundant. I might just, you know, I just don't think you need that many infielders for this five game series. So that's, that's my bet. I don't know. Kurt, you see anything different. No. And I think the point about Colverson and Camargo is right. I would imagine it

would be Camargo. Just because, he has pop and can, you know, he's a switch hitter and has versatility. He's a, he's a good defensive player. So you're saying that it would be Colverson to go and not. Well, especially since Snicker refuses to play Colverson. That's also. Hey, he pinch ran once. Okay. Wow. Wow. Car series. Camargo didn't do anything. I do think it's interesting. And we

talked about this that he pit, that he caught. Darno. That second game. Which is sort of contrary to the coxian tree of philosophy. That you just put people out there based on what your book says to do or whatever it might be. And I mean, Snicker has played this. Very straightforward, which is this is my best lineup. And these are the guys that are going to

play. And, you know, Darno did not have a great. Wildcard series. But he's obviously a better offensive player than, than Tyler Flowers is. And, you know, I mean, you think back to like elimination games where Bobby Cox was start kill Vio Varys and, you know, the backup catcher that was. Greg Maddox's personal catcher as opposed to Hobby Lopez, who would hit. 45 home runs that year

or something like that, you know. And so I think that's interesting that he went that way after we figured that he would start Flowers because Darno would call it so many innings a day before. So. Yeah. I mean, extra innings, right. Yeah. Snicker was playing it aggressively. And I wonder if we will see. Darno for the first two games, you know, and then flowers catches on

Thursday. And maybe it's Darno again on Friday, if it goes to four, you know, something like that. But it. I would think it indicates we'll see more Darno than Flowers. Well, it certainly indicates he was playing to win against the fans, right? You know, leaning in and not taking any chances. I, you know, we will probably get back to this on our recap of the season

show. Um, I think, you know, we were worried about Snicker in this 60 game season. And I think he, you know, he there were obviously some game to game gaps. I think he's done pretty well, though, overall. I think he's adjusted to this weird season. Um, nicely. Yeah. There was the bad bullpen week there. I mean, snicker, but then he rebounded from that and started, you

know, started utilizing those guys in a more sane fashion. Well, I started mixing it up and started and, you know, did bring up. I mean, this is not necessarily snicker. It may be more anthropous. But given those guys starts and like, you know, not going to Tomman over and over and over and again. And I don't know, getting Wilson in there, getting right in there. Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, it does start with that, populace for sure. But so Curtis this weekend, Brian Snicker in a press conference left open the possibility that freed would start game five on short rest, depending on, you know, how his first start went and just whatever was going, you know, a lot of different factors. So play manager Kurt, who's starting games for in games five for you?

I think Bryce Wilson, you guys sort of touched on that before. I think if they get to game four, the Bryce Wilson will probably get that start. One of his last good showings, his best showing, frankly, was that starting had against Miami back on the 22nd with five innings, three hits. Only one big hit. I'm going to go to the base on ball and seventh strikeouts.

That was when he had that fastball that was biting in on the right-handed hitters inside of the plate and everything. And he looked great. So I would imagine that he will get game four. And I cannot imagine that if they get to the game five, that they will not bring free back on short rest, I can, I refuse to believe that, you know, or Tomlin or.

And over the, even if it's just to have, I mean, it's a elimination game, even if you only get two or three innings out of free. Just to have some semblance of a start there. And then you can hand it over to Matt Sik or somebody like that. Or you know, if he's on this roster and trying to cobble together something to get to the sixth

or the seventh where you can then hand it over to the, the depth of the bullpen. But. I just can't imagine. I mean, you know, I was looking up the, the Marlin starting pitchers and their projections. And I mean, you know, they had the potential thought that their fifth, if they go to game five, that they're potentially starting a guy who's never started a major league

game. This guy Edward Cabrera, who's a very high respected farmhand, you know, he's a top hundred prospect in baseball. But. I mean, really game five, you're going to hand that over to a kid who's never, and it might, you know, it might be one of those things where you catch lightning in a bottle. But I just don't think with this season, the way this season is

sort of played out. And the frankly, that these guys have not had a lot of starts that you cannot bring. Free back on short rest. And at least trying to grind two or three innings out of them. How could you imagine being that thin with your starting pitching those poor suckers. But Curtis, I totally agree. Right. I mean, I think you've got to start Wilson. Start

for eating game five and approach them as true piggybacking starts, right? Just get Wilson through the lineup twice and then have Tomlin or Noah ready to go. And free, depending on how much stress there is in game one. Have the, you know, who, you know, who you didn't use in game four. Ready to pick up those middle innings as well. I mean, I think that that's,

I think that gives us the best chance to win as opposed to starting a Noah game five or Tomlin game four. What have you. Hmm. I mean, you see it any different. No, you said no, I don't. I mean, I think free. It's got to be starting game five. Do you think if it's close in game one and freed's dealing. Um, you maybe pull him a

little bit early to save him for a game five or you just ride him out and cross the ladder. I think you got to play to win that first game. And you never know. I mean, it might even end up being, and I mean, I don't, I don't, obviously I'm not hoping for this. But, you know, with being an interesting guy, I think he goes out

there and only goes like an inning or two because he doesn't have, he doesn't have it in that start. You could potentially bring him back. If he only pitches an inning or two. Obviously, that's not the scenario that I want to play out. But there are options there. And I mean, you know, there's always full team. If only he were on the roster. Hey, you never

know. You never know. I guess that's true. All right, guys. So let's jump in and look at the Marlins team and what they did in 2020. So, Kurt, let's start with you and the Marlins. Starting pictures that we will likely see in this series. Well, obviously Urania is out with a broken arm, which, oh, yeah, you know, and that is a big blow to then though

for real, for real. But he was so sorry. He was not even at great this year. He was over three with a 540 ERA. So he did not have a great season this year. So maybe that's why he missed the start with COVID. Yeah, the addition by track. But the way it looks like it. It's going to break out is Alcantara will get game. I mean,

this is what the Miami beat writer was saying Alcantara, then Pablo Lopez, then Sixto, maybe switch those two. And then they weren't super sure about four and five themselves. Maybe Trevor Rogers gets four. And then obviously they mentioned this Edward Cabrera kid five. But I would imagine if they get to game five, they're going to bring back one of their starters on short rest as well.

So these guys are, these guys are good. I mean, they're legit. Their numbers don't completely jump off the page at you. It's not any, you know, like six and O with a low to ERA or something like that. But they're all really, at least the top three are really solid. And obviously we saw a bunch of these guys. Alcantara actually we didn't see surprisingly. But he

went three and two with the three are ERA 1.19 whip. His career against the Braves. I guess this was when we've seen him is zero, 0 and 0 with the 241 ERA. He's only given up six runs in 18 innings pitch. But interestingly, any little advantage she want to look for his ERA during the day is 540. And Wallick looks like he's going to be starting

catching that game. His ERA with Wallick as his catcher is 556. Pay now. So anything you can look for to give you a little. Bonus is always welcomed. This is some hard hitting stats, Curtis. Yeah, only here, only here. Dig and deep. Lopez, of course, is the guy that was part of that 29 game. Run game against the Braves. But other than that, if you take

that away, he had three outings against the Braves. The other two 11 innings pitch, nine hits, only two run run. So he pitched pretty well against this save that one start where he really couldn't find the. So he had the first one in the second zone. And then six doe is of course the guy that got from the Phillies in the real Muto trade. And he

the first came against us. He certainly pretty much shut us down. But the second game we had better, better luck against him. Three innings pitch, four runs on four hits in the second game. The first one was six inning pitch, only three hits. So those are the three guys you figure you're going to face. And I think that, you know, you look at stats. And you

know, you're going to be able to get a score. And then six out of the two rounds with versus the Cubs, they're going to throw a lot of fastballes versus what the Reds are throwing at us. And the Braves are the, frankly, the best hitting fastball hitting team in majors. So. And the Cubs are one of the worst. The Cubs had a 195 batting average and

pitches over 95 miles an hour, which they threw a ton of against them. So maybe they don't throw us that because we bat at three out nine against fastballs this year, but against this rather than just throwing us fastballs. But you've got to like your with our offense matched up against power pitching. You figure that's that's a that's a matchup that favors the Braves. 100%. Yeah.

I mean, I saw so on the Braves against fastballs, 95 and above this year was 260 batting average, 453 slugging percentage. But Kurt, you're right. I mean, if they surely they know all this. I would think they will not just pump up fastballs up there. I mean, they'll get crushed. Yeah, six to that one last point on his sinkers is, is this like really big pitch.

And the Braves are only three for 19 against this sinker, which is a lot like Castillo's breaking ball that was dipping down in a way that was so frustrating to watch the Braves swing at balls of foot outside. But that's where six to works as magic as well. So the Braves have to be patient and not go fishing for that pitch a lot. Right. So, hey,

let's look at their bullpen. Yeah. Well, I mean, maddenly always says that or has set a couple times that he doesn't worry about his bullpen so much because his starters are so great. So Curtis, you just mentioned to, you know, how good they were and how formidable they were. They, um, they pitch a lot of innings, right. The Marlins were, uh, the Marlins bullpen was was

lower in the league about middle of the pack in terms of innings. So they really relied on their star. The founders to carry them. And so I read one preview of this and what's, uh, of the postseason. And it said, what is every team's weakness and it was the, for the marlins, it was the bullpen, um, because it's not great. They're bullpen is not great. So

they're going to rely on their starters. So if you look at them as a team, they had the fifth highest ERA, it's a 5.50. Second highest fit at 5.65. They did not strike out a lot. They had the lowest strikeout rate 18. Um, they struck out the fewest batters, um, second fewest batters in majors, uh, which is going to be nice for us since we struck

out 170 times against the reds. Um, down to. So, um, two vet or three veterans, they have Richard Blier, James Hoyt, Brad Boxberger. Um, Boxberger is pretty good. Uh, he had a 3.0 ERAs of veterans 35. Uh, Hoyt is a strikeout guy. Uh, only, you know, they do not have a ton of strikeout guys on their team. Like I said, but, um, he had a 1.23

R.A. 20 strikeouts and 14 to thirds innings this year. Um, and Blier was 2.63 and 15 and two thirds. Um, they're main guys though are their closer, Brandon Kinsler, uh, who's, who's good. Um, he's not great. Does not strike out a lot of guys. Um, he's two and three with 12 saves this year, a 2.22 ERA. Um, but they're most talented guy. The guy I'm worried

about facing as a guy, Yemi Garcia. Um, he's the real deal. He had a 0.6 ERA, uh, I 0.93 whip did not allow a home or all season. Uh, those guys, the, the bullpen overall pitched six and two thirds against the reds. And then I got a couple of cups and did not give up a run. So they're hit a bull. Um, I think if we

can just make their starters, throw a ton of pitches, when we get to the bullpen, we will be effective against them. Yeah. So Kinsler and September had eight walks to seven strikeouts. Now, Yemi, like I said, was two walks to 15 strikeouts. I mean, Yemi is really quite good, but Kinsler, you can get to, yeah, he's there. Melanson. Sorry. Kinsler. Just like, he makes you feel

nervous when he's a loser. Right. Um, you know, look, we, we got through Bauer and Castillo. I know that six toe is really good. And Alcantair is really good. But we figured out a way to navigate through Bauer and Castillo. I mean, you know, I'm not, I'm not saying it's a cakewalk, but I'm saying that we can deal with those starting pitchers and get to the

bullpen. And they got five guys. I mean, beyond those five guys, I listed, it, it falls off pretty quickly. So, and with Urania being out, they had a, you know, there's somebody who may have to do one of those spots, starts like Kurt, so that takes an arm out of the bullpen that they had. So they're thin, they're super duper thin. We will get to the

bullpen and like game three on, you know, since they're back to back to back to back. If we can, you know, get to Alcantara and get to Lopez. This is, you know, a true advantage. Yeah, I agree. So let's move on to the Marlins offense. So the Marlins this year were 21st and runs scored. The Braves were second. The Marlins scored 263. We had 348 batting

average. Marlins were 17th in the majors to the Braves again at two, we'd add a 268. The Marlins OPS 23rd best in the league. The Braves were number one at 832. And the Marlins were at 7. 03. The Marlins hit the 25th most homers in the majors at 60. The Braves were number two at 103. The Marlins did beat us here in strikeouts. The Marlins were

tenth at 537. The Braves were the second biggest, you know, strikeout team at 573. Another interesting advantage, I think, is that the Marlins stole 51 bases. This year, I think, I think the Marlins were the second biggest strikeout team at 573. Another interesting advantage, I think, is that the Marlins stole 51 bases this year. The second most in the league, the Braves stole 23. And I

went and looked at Darnow and Flowers' caught stealing numbers, which I figured were going to be real bad for Flowers. I didn't think they were going to be this bad for Darnow. So Darnow had three caught stealing 24 stolen bases. Yeesh. Flowers, two caught stealing 15 stolen bases. Let's talk about their offers. Yeah. Just some Flowers. Yeah. Except Flowers. Change the subject. You know, so look,

the Marlins are going to run. Yeah. And they're going to get on base. They're going to get on base too. Right. I mean, I know they're batting averages low, but I mean, they're much better than the Reds, right, who were historically bad. The Reds just tried to hit everything out of the park or just miss on. I mean, they're going to put balls in play. They're

going to, you know, they're going to lay off some of that stuff that's going to be down in a way that they're going to play. The Reds just didn't lay off. So it's going to be harder, I think, you know, they're going to be, they will be base runners. Yeah. On the flip side, they put balls in play. We have a great defense behind our pitchers,

you know. Sure. The only other thing I got here is the third basement Brian Anderson leads the Marlins in home runs at 11, right? So they're not, they're not knocking the ball out of the park. It is a small ball team. We got to get to their starting pitching. We just cannot get shot. We got down by those guys and have them have Si Young starts

for the first three games. Yeah. Well, look, there won't be the crazy shadows. I mean, you know, I know I've been sort of beaten that drum, but I really do think the Braves offense is going to look better without that crazy sort of backdrop to the ball coming at them. Yeah, I mean, so. Look on paper. I don't know if you guys saw. Somewhere on MLB.com,

they did a position by position comparison and who has the advantage. Yeah, I saw it. Not only the only two advantages the Marlins had were a third base. And that was a slight advantage and maybe short. Sure. Yeah. Everything else was advantage. And Marta is out. Right. Probably probably a good thing. No, I mean, we're on paper. We are much, much better than them. But they

are. They are the on the field. We're also much, much better than them. But they're the bottom feeders, the Cinderella story. What are they doing here? All of a sudden, they're a more interesting team, I think nationally than the Braves are. Which makes me the little nauseous and a little nervous. Yeah. I mean, look, I get the whole team of destiny getting through the, you know,

COVID issue that they created themselves, which somehow doesn't get mentioned as it is recounted at this point. So getting through that and that whole bottom feeders thing and, you know, no one thought we'd be here and all that stuff. But, you know, we'll get to our predictions a little bit later. But I just think talent wins out here. And I think that they, I think that

the, the reds were more formidable than the Marlins. I really do. Despite the lack of offense, I think that pitching is going to be better than what we saw from those two red starters is going to be better than what we see against the Marlins. They're matching our familiarity with them, you know, and Eric Greg is dead and cannot call game five. Yes, stripes of foot

off the plate and leave on her Nanda's. I'm pretty sure is not pitching pretty sure. All right, guys, next up is shot in the dark and our predictions for the series. But first a quick break. All right, shot in the dark are crazy predictions for the games coming up this week. But let's see how we did with the predictions for the red series. And we'll start

with our listener picks. So first up Colleen predicted that in game one, Bauer would not pitch past the fifth and Akunya and Ozuna would go deep. So not to be with Bauer's seven and two thirds jam and no homers for Akunya or Ozuna. Thanks Colleen for playing. Next up BJ Barton predicted that brave starting pictures would have more innings pitched than the red starting pictures. And

that Adam Duval would haunt his former team with two home. So Bauer seven and seven and two thirds Castillo five and a third for 13 freed seven and Anderson six also 13 Duval did hit one homer. But not to that final backbreaker in game two. So close BJ. Thanks for playing. Next up Mark Thompson predicted that Markeicus would hit a home run, which I kind of

felt was going to happen to, but not to be. Thanks for playing Mark. David carrier predicted that a brave start. The braves would sweep and get two homers from Aussie. So half right there David. Thanks for playing and last up. Roy predicted a brave sweep. And that the team would win both games by four plus runs. Yeah. Boy game one. Any other. Not helping there. All

right. Let's see how we did. So I predicted that mentor green and melanson would give up zero runs in the series. Oh yeah. I figured you would save that for last. I know. Seriously, you couldn't wait. I just wanted to drop it on you guys right now. All right. So ham. You predicted to Kuhn. You would home or in every game or neither. Just off by

two. Just off by two. Yes. Curtis. You predicted. Fried would strike out more and have less earned runs than Bauer did and get the win. So Bauer struck out 12 to Fried's five tied and earned runs and mentor. Actually, I don't think I even realized until I looked it up, got the win in game one. All right, guys. What do you have this week? It is,

it is, you know, DS edition. I will, I'll start. I've got that Alcantara and six dough combined to give up six or more earned runs and neither see the sixth inning in their first, you know, in their first two starts. They're only two starts. Yeah, I mean, we could see right. We could see one of them in game five. And I'm just talking about their first.

How about you? Let me preface this by saying, I think, Fried and Anderson and right are going to do great. Fried and Anderson, I'm going to do great. But I think right actually gives up fewer runs than Fried or Anderson. All right. Yeah. I mean, that's other going to be awesome or terrible. Let's go for awesome. Let's go for awesome. I'm off for the awesome part.

That's what it meant. I meant. It to be. All right, Curtis, how about you? I feel like the O'Zuna Duval cushioned homers there at the end are really going to carry over. So I feel like we have an offensive breakout in this series 12 or more extra base hits against the Marlins. I like it. I like it. All right, folks. Remember, you get to play too.

Get your shot in the dark in before first pitch on Tuesday for the Marlin series. Send it in via Twitter. If we pick your orders, we'll discuss it on next week's show and you could win an ABT, Koosie. If you hit it exactly. All right. So guys, the week ahead. Well, we know it's against the Marlins. We know it'll be at least three games and no

more than five. Figure free Alcantara and Curtis. I think I read a similar thing where they were like Lopez or Sixth, oh, not sure. I would think they throw Sixth in game two just to win early. Right. I mean, he's better. So figure Anderson, Sixth, oh, excuse me, right, Lopez and then who knows? So Curtis, let's start with you. What's your prediction for this series? Braves

and four. You want to break it down? How it goes? Ham, contrary, not that I want Cal Write, but I think we win to lose one and then win game four. Because if they're throwing Trevor Rogers in game four, I'm all over that. I will take Bryce Wilson over Trevor Rogers any day of the week. And so we'll go with that. So Curtis, I'll tell you

that is exactly my prediction. When the first two lose right start and like clinching the East, Bryce Wilson starts game four on the Braves win. Ham, I mean, I know they win game three, obviously. Amazingly so like no hitter. I'm changing my shot in the dark. Kyle Wright. No. I think it's we win one, lose one, win the next two and end it in four. I

think we lose Anderson's star, but he does not get the loss. Okay. Because I think it'll be six though. Because I why would you throw Lopez instead of six? So I think I think it's one of those. It's like a game we had against the Reds where Anderson doesn't figure into the decision. Yeah. But we win the series. I mean, look, we're all predicting four games.

I feel good. I feel much better about this series than the red series. I mean, yeah. Yes, until all of a sudden, until we realize how thin our starting pitching is, but yes, I mean, we're a better team than them. I feel good and they they're due to not win a postseason series. I just don't see them continuing that ridiculous streak where they've never lost supposed

to be. The Reds and Series. And we're just better than them. Exactly. We're better than them. I do. I think the offense breaks out. I think that this team throwing a bunch of fastball. I know I've touched on this, but I do think it's important that the Braves are getting to face the team that sort of lives off the fastball, lives off high velocity fastballs and

the Braves have feasted on that this year. I think that they're going to they're going to have some games. The Braves are going to have some games where they're going to score quite a few runs. Yeah. I think so too. I don't think it's going to be this like zero zero in the eighth nail biteers, at least not, you know, all of them. All right, guys,

that is the show. We will be back all week with wrap ups each night of every division series game. And find the podcast at Speaker iTunes, Stitcher, Google Play and Spotify. Find us at AtlantaBaseballTalk.com. Be sure to follow us on Twitter at ATLBaseballTalk and to like us on Facebook. Thanks again. For listening and go Braves. Thanks for listening to AtlantaBaseballTalk. You're a weekly podcast for all

things at Atlanta Braves. To find new shows, to post in our forum or to send a comment, please visit us at AtlantaBaseballTalk.com.