Can 'Trump tape' affect the republican 2024 presidential race? | Inside Story

Donald Trump is heard on tape discussing classified documents it's a crucial piece of evidence in a federal investigation into his handling of sensitive documents so how will this affect the case and the Republican race for the White House this is Inside Story [Music] hello and welcome to the program I'm fully batibo it's a two-minute recording that could prove devastating for Donald Trump he said that I

wanted to attack Iran isn't it amazing to have a big pile of papers this thing just came up media outlets in the United States have obtained an audio recording in which the former president appears to acknowledge keeping classified documents after leaving office the recording was reportedly made in July of 2021 and the documents apparently referred to sensitive information about a possible attack on Iran Trump is

facing 37 federal charges for his handling of classified documents he's pleaded not guilty so just how damaging is this recording and will it affect next year's presidential race we'll put these questions to our guests in just a moment but first this report from my White House correspondent Kimberly harkett and I won't forget in his first public remark since the release of a controversial audio recording Donald

Trump lashed out those investigating him for allegedly removing classified documents from the White House this stuff doesn't hold up and people know it this is the continuation of the greatest Witch Hunt of all time that's all it is and its primary purpose is election interference and we're not going to let this election be stolen from us the former president made the remarks while campaigning in New

Hampshire on Tuesday in the new audio recorded during a 2021 interview at his New Jersey Golf Course Trump appears to show classified material to AIDS and a writer working on a memoir of a pentagon planned for a U.S attack against Iran presented to him by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark milley Trump was President it was Millie let me see that I'll show

you an example he said that I wanted to attack Iran isn't it amazing to have a big pile of papers this thing just came up look this was him they presented me this is off the Record but they presented me this this was him this was the defense department in him yeah I just found isn't that amazing this totally wins my case you know except it

is like highly confidential there's a secret information the U.S justice departments charged Trump with 37 counts of mishandling top secret documents the audio seems to counter Trump's claim dozens of boxes found last year at his Mar-A-Lago estate were just newspaper clippings prosecutors say many of those documents were instead highly classified the recording may also prove the government's case that Trump did not declassify the material as

he should have well in office this was done by the military given to me I think we can probably let's try to figure out see as president I could have did less yeah no I can't you know but this is yeah we have a problem former president Trump is currently awaiting trial he's pleaded not guilty to the charges his trial date is set for August but

prosecutors are pushing to have that date moved to the end of the year I'm Kimberly hellkit in Washington for Inside Story while Trump's legal issues extend well beyond this case in March he became the first former president to face criminal charges after he was indicted for falsifying business records it was in connection with the payoff he made to the porn star Stormy Daniels one of the

biggest cases is the Justice Department's investigation into Trump's role in encouraging a violent attack of the capital in January 2021 the case includes his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election and there's the Georgia investigation which focuses on Trump's reported attempt to have officials there alter the results of the state's 2020 presidential vote that's bringing our guest now for today's show in Washington D.C

John Markham vice president of the institute for constitutional government at the Heritage Foundation he's also a former U.S federal prosecutor in Birmingham in the UK Scott Lucas professor at the Clinton Institute university college Dublin and also in Washington DC Bruce Fine a former U.S associate Deputy attorney general and a constitutional lawyer gentlemen welcome to Insight sorry thank you very much for joining us Bruce Fine in

Washington let me start with you former president Trump has always said that the documents he took with him from the White House were Declassified but this published audio recording appears to contradict this how damning is this and is this a nail in the case against Trump well I think it's an exaggeration to point to just one piece of evidence uh as conclusive the burden is on

prosecutor to prove Beyond A Reasonable Doubt um this certainly undercuts the president's former claim maybe he still maintains it that he could just think about declassifying a document in his head and it became Declassified by Magic uh here at least the tape if it's authentic suggests that he knew that you would need to do certain things uh in a formal way to declassify a Dogman he

hadn't done it at least with regard this document concerning a potential attack on Iran so this is not helpful to Mr Trump I think um it may force him to consider testifying which he probably doesn't want to do in the case right to try to undermine uh its impact uh but I I wouldn't say that it makes it a slam dunk Bruce is it clear from

the indictment if the documents that were referenced in the recording are the ones recovered by the by the investigators well the indictment parallels exactly what you played in terms of putting in transcript in and written form uh The Exchange especially you know it's too late to declassify so um that's there's a parallel there which would lend authenticity uh to the uh the the audio that we

listen to but you have a trial so that the other side can cross-examine you never take anything at face value all right John Malcolm what was your first reaction when you heard this recording does it tell you anything you didn't know already no it doesn't tell me anything I didn't know already because that transcript is contained in paragraph 34 of Jack Smith's indictment that is pending

down in Florida but just as a picture is worth a thousand words you know an audio recording has more of an impact than reading a transcript on uh on camera it also leaves open I suppose the possibility that Jack Smith could indict uh former president Trump for disclosing classified information to a person who didn't have the requisite clearances and he could do that in New Jersey

since this Exchange took place at his Resort in Bedminster New Jersey I doubt he's going to do that I think if he was going to do that he would have done it already and I agree with with Bruce you know look these are our allegations the former president has taken somewhat of a scatter shot approach he said well I Declassified these records and I had a

right to keep them under the presidential records act and each one of these pieces of evidence puts a [__] in that Defense John he said in the tape it's so cool that he has these classified documents those are his words why did he do it you think was this just about showing off oh I have I have no idea uh I mean there are stories out

there that he was convinced by uh Associates that he had a right to have these documents under the presidential records act uh maybe he did it because he wanted to confront uh people who were you know saying bad things about him which is what he appears to be doing uh in the tape that you just played there could be Myriad of reasons as to why uh

he kept them although we shouldn't have okay Scott Lucas your thoughts about this tape and what you heard how damning is it for Donald Trump well I agree first of all with John with Bruce that it doesn't change the substance of the legal case against Donald Trump uh in this indictment indeed the existence of this audio tape not the actual tape being played but the existence

of this tape became known at the end of May more than a week before Trump was indicted but on the political front of course what this does is this amplifies as it were the indictment it amplifies the seriousness of it and it does cause a real problem for Donald Trump's Public Defense which has varied from oh the FBI planted documents I didn't know the documents were

there and then of course that idea that he could declassify them uh either with a signature or in his mind that's kind of gone now what I find most interesting about this is is the context of this case because this document was one of the most sensitive in the U.S government it was a document about U.S war plans on Iran now why would Donald Trump release

U.S War plans on Iran to a writer a publisher as well as to staff who are in the room it is because he wanted to score a point against the current and then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark milley Donald Trump who has a serious series of grievances with Millie wanted to make Millie look bad and make him look like a warmonger on Iran

and portray Trump as the sensible responsible Statesman who had avoided war and the reason why he presented this document is he thought it helped that case and as he makes clear consequences be damned even if he wasn't supposed to be revealing that document to anyone this can't you say it doesn't change the substance of the case Trump is set in the past that he could shoot

someone on Fifth Avenue and no one would care is this the case with this recording do you think his followers his supporters will care about this well you know there are some people who come hell or high water have stopped with Donald Trump um throughout his years as a candidate as president even to the point of when he allegedly incited the capital attack in January 2021

and I don't think it shifts the needle on those folks I don't think it shifts the needle on those folks who are firmly against Trump but there are a lot of Americans who aren't in one of those two camps and I think what this does is it it sort of blows away the initial defense of trump supporters which is there's nothing to see here folks let's

move along let's talk about other issues it highlights the fact that no this is a serious issue this isn't just a court case this is a court case about leaking documents and it's not just about leaking documents it's about leaking top secret documents which are vital to American National Security Bruce Fine what do you think the defense of trump could be of this can can his

defense team come up with anything to counter this evidence well it's difficult I mean we're just talking about this one count yeah we're talking about indictment that alleges not only that he retained a National Defense information which is the standard in the ESPN object it doesn't use the word classified information but he's also been indicted for obstruction of justice but let's put the obstruction of justice

aside for the moment um now what can his defenses be well he could say he didn't have any reason to believe it could be adversely uh prejudicial to the interest of the United States um in fact and I've written about this my my view is that uh and I don't know whether you take the issue is that you can make an arguable case that the Espionage

Act is overbroad under the First Amendment because you don't have to prove there was actual injury or impairment uh to the National Security of the United States just that there was a reason to believe that it might happen it's a standard of actual injury that was established in the Pentagon papers case and New York Times versus United States so we could challenge the constitutionality the Espionage

Act under the First Amendment he's never suggested they would do that in the past he'd kind of praise the Espionage Act as applied to others but I believe that's his his best defense uh otherwise you don't have to under the Fifth Amendment to have any defense all just tell the prosecutors got to prove Beyond a reasonable doubt you know that I had reason to believe this

would be damaging to the interest of the United States and I shared it with people not authorized uh it's not the strongest case in the world if you're not taking your own defense but he might do that John do you agree with with Bruce how do you prepare a defense when it's right there on tape well certainly the defense that Bruce has talked about is one

he is likely to raise uh he has also talked extensively about the presidential records act and his belief that he had a right to have those documents this is an audio tape not a videotape I suppose he could argue I alluded to these documents but I didn't actually show uh the documents you know the one thing where I just disagree with Bruce not as a tactical

matter I agree with you that anytime a defendant takes the stand it is a very very risky proposition but this is Donald Trump we're talking about I think it will be extremely difficult to keep him off of the stand he will just want uh to tell his story Bruce uh do you think he's going to take the stand well you can try to extrapolate from the

track record you know that you know he did not take the stand in the civil case but by Gene Carroll I guess on the sexual assault issue um we know that his attorney John Dowd and I knew John when I was at the justice department uh told Trump you I'm never going to let you be deposed by Mueller and he said openly because you know you're

going to destroy yourself so in the past as lawyers have urged him not to testify and he hasn't done so on the other hand he has been subject to depositions before uh and it's really my view is his lawyers will urge him not to testify uh but he may decide he's going to testify anyway he thinks he can sway the jury uh you can see how

he performed on the CNN uh Town Hall interview kind of barging through the interrogator uh but I think it's very very risky but at this stage you got to take risks given the substantial laws he's confronting that all right Scott is let's talk about the political implications of all this this is not the first case against Donald Trump I mean there are other cases a hash

money payment case so January 16 Insurrection investigation um the Republican presidential candidates except for Chris Christie perhaps um have largely defended Donald Trump and criticized Jack's Jack Smith right can this be the opening perhaps for some of the Republicans to change her tune on this you need to ask them but unfortunately they're not here so let's talk about the record today remember it's not just the

case of trump being under indicted I mean the fact is is the Trump organization uh was convicted in 2022 in New York state over business malpractice uh there are pending cases in New York state regarding fraud and Tax Matters associated with Trump and of course there was the conviction on sexual assault of Eugene Carroll in the 1990s with Trump being ordered to pay out five million

dollars so that's a lengthy lengthy legal record that he's compiled but that's uh what you've seen so far from the Republican candidates is as you've seen Ron DeSantis the Florida governor who's trying to out Trump trump he's trying to take up fairly extreme positions and win over the Trump voters so he's probably not going to go after Trump why why are they so reluctant why is

someone like John Rochester so reluctant to go after Trump because the Republican politicians are being held hostage by Donald Trump and the perception that Trump voters are still a significant part of the Republican constituency and so if they alienate Trump voters they don't have a hope in the primaries next year it's as simple as that it's the reason why Mike Pence even though Donald Trump uh

was willing to let Mike Pence be attacked on January 6 20 21 did nothing to get him out of that predicament during the capital attack why Mike Pence has been loathed to come out against Trump uh it's why other candidates have tried to avoid comment on these lethal matters except for as you know Chris Christie is coming from a slightly different background in the way that

his campaign tactics will run I'll just refer you to something which happened a couple years ago which still is striking to me and that is at a time when Donald Trump had survived the second impeachment trial and was not convicted but at a time when even Mitch McConnell the Senate majority leader was saying the courts must hold him to account Kevin McCarthy who is currently the

Republican house Speaker the speaker he initially criticized Trump over the capital attack and then within two weeks he went to Florida and he pledged allegiance to Trump and I think you see other candidates who think do I stand up against Trump or do I not necessarily bow down before him take a pass on this they go for the latter because they think that Trump votes in

certain States key states are essential to their chances of advancing John Malcolm your thoughts why do some Republican candidates want to take a pass on this and does it what impact does it have on the Republican primary and aren't Republicans uh fearful that if Trump represents them they might lose the House and Senate in the next election well first of all Joe Biden is himself vulnerable

there are a majority of people across political across political parties that think he's too old and should not run uh I agree with a lot of what Scott said the other thing that I would say is that Donald Trump has done a remarkably good job at persuading a broad number of people a very very large number of people that there is a two-tiered system of justice

at play that targets conservatives and he has also convinced his supporters that they're not really after Donald Trump they are after them and that they are using they're trying to go get to them through Donald Trump and that Donald Trump is standing up for them as their champion and I think that other than that Scott is is Right everyone else is sort of waiting to see

what's going to happen see whether these other indictments make a dent uh and they want to be able to get all of those current Trump supporters to come over and vote for them if that happened right Bruce Fine for our International audience what happens if a presidential candidate is indicted he's already been indicted so you're seeing it you know as you're speaking the three of us

and uh and watching things What What In what way will it hinder the campaign I mean and and you know will it hurt him in the polls are they practical ways in which they couldn't be able to campaign for example well I don't think that you know his his numbers have been impacted substantially uh by the two outstanding indictments we have now one in New York

and one in Mar-A-Lago uh I do think that the political Fallout would be greater if he's indicted for the January 6 Insurrection and on that score I do want to call attention to another candidate Mike Pence who basically said in distancing himself in my view legally substantially from Trump said on the morning of January 6th Trump approached him and said you got to choose between me

and the constitution in other words you know are we going to have a rule of law or rule of men and Penn said I chose the Constitution and we know what Trump did defense and kind of let him out hang to drive and so the reason why January 6 looms so large politically is because under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment if there's a conviction under

Insurrection there's a disqualification of anyone in that position from anywhere occupying not only the presidency any office under the United States and I do think that would that would that would move the issue in a different direction because it's going to be very difficult for Mike Pence to walk back his words which are about as incriminating as you can get okay interesting so what happens then

if he's elected let's say we're speculating here of course if he's elected with a case still in progress well we have this very unusual feature could a president pardon himself now I confronted that issue that didn't have to reach fruition that the justice department President Nixon uh was under investigation by Archibald Cox and then he was fired then it was the special prosecutor Leon Jaworski and

there's where as well as President Nixon going to Pardon himself uh it would prevent a prosecution uh there was no clear recognition whether there would be any obvious conflict of interest that would prevent that pardon from being effective so it's an unknown territory and it's possible if president Trump were elected he could pardon himself and move all of these cases off the docket because you can

issue a pardon even before an indictment not only after indictment so those are the stakes when it comes to the rule of law at least as a possibilities a underscore is an unknown constitutional terrain right now yeah Uncharted Territory uh Scott Lucas uh Trump still holds a commanding lead over he's announced primary opponents could that change who or what do you see as his biggest challenge

right now I have a lot of speculation indeed it plays into Donald Trump's hands to speculate about political ramifications because what Trump is trying to do is to play the victim and at the same time say if you prosecute me if you pursue this it only makes me stronger the fact of the matter is is that we still have eight months before the first Republican primaries

and caucuses we still have 17 months before it is the general election and that's a long and Winding Road what I can tell you right now is that this lays out into something which it will be the case of facts and the legal process versus white noise and the white noise which will be there on social media it'll be there on certain media outlets in the

United States is to try to Simply cover up the legal process to wish it away to turn it into a deep State plot against Donald Trump to raise other distracting issues and that raises a broader issue because if that white noise triumphs if the legal facts of this case and of the other case are obscured or ripped apart by deception by misrepresentation it says something about

the challenge to American democracy a challenge which could be at its greatest Point since 1865. it's still a long time as you say socks got until the Republican primary now the Biden team interestingly has been very quiet for the time being will will this change in your view over the next few months as the campaign heats up how do they handle this without commenting on the

legal developments without looking like they're interfering in the case one way or another you don't comment on the case because it would be interference that's not just a political decision that's a legal decision this is a case which is being brought by the justice department it's being bought by federal prosecutors the judicial branch of the United States must remain separate from the executive branch and that

must be respected by the president whether he's named Joe Biden or someone else so I would expect no comment on the details of this case uh now or in the future no matter how much again white noise is thrown up to try to force or push Joe Biden into making a comment which would be inappropriate all right John your thoughts how do you see all this

proceeding and progressing it's complicated isn't it to to deal with classified documents in court it is uh so commenting on what Scott just said that's not the only reason Joe Biden won't uh comment on this he is himself still under investigation by a special counsel for possession in his own right of classified uh documents and uh there is all of these reports out there from whistleblowers

and whatnot that his son Hunter Biden just got a real sweetheart deal in Delaware and that the Department of Justice obstructed that investigation so President Biden enters into very very hot water if he comments at least at this stage on this indictment Scott's also right there's a long time between the first caucuses and primaries in a longer time before the election uh I think that President

Trump probably about 50 percent of his support is very very firm the other 50 percent are fishing around and could be persuaded to join other candidates and I think that is waiting to see what other shoes brought okay uh Bruce fine I'll give you the last word your thoughts about Joe Biden and the Democrats can they capitalize on this and how do you see this case

against Donald Trump uh progressing and proceeding well I certainly agree the position of Mr Biden should be complete silence um that's what it means to have a rule of law rather than a rule of men um asses is so important it's the centerpiece of our Democratic dispensation they shouldn't he shouldn't say a single word other than uh that there's a presumption of innocence Mr Trump is

entitled to all the rights that any other defendant would have let's have this decided in a court of law and in advance we accept the verdict no matter what it is we don't hitch one way or the other um and I do think this particular election and the investigations of Mr Trump are truly uh the greatest test of our democracy certainly since Watergate our processes are

under threat uh Mr Trump has questioned their legitimacy uh basically saying I don't need to comply with the Constitution uh in 2019 he said without any pushback then I have article two where I have the right to do anything I want as President right if that takes hold in this country the revolution of 1776 has been undone okay gentlemen thank you so very much for your

Insight it was very interesting to hear your thoughts on this Bruce Fine John Malcolm Scott Lucas thank you very much and thank you as well for watching you can always watch this program again anytime by visiting our website at Al jazeera.com for further discussion go to our Facebook page that's facebook.com forward slash AJ Inside Story and of course you can join the conversation on Twitter our

handle is at AJ inside story from me fully batibo and the whole team here in Doha thanks for watching bye for now