Could Putins Russia suddenly collapse? | ABC News Daily Podcast

hi I'm Sam Hawley coming to you from gadigal Land This is ABC News Daily [Music] it was a brief Act of mutiny lasting just 36 hours what does the armed rebellion in Russia across the weekend mean for the future of the Russian state and its leader Vladimir Putin today co-host of the Kremlin file podcast Olga lautman on what was the biggest challenge to Putin's leadership in

decades and what might come next thank you Olga what a week in Russia an attempted clue followed by a quick retreat by its instigator Evgeni pagosian it's fascinating to watch what's been unfolding hey yeah this is a has been definitely a very captivating uh weekend and week Vladimir Putin is fighting for his survival the Wagner group of mercenaries which Putin has relied on so heavily to

fight his war in Ukraine has gone Rogue two things we basically saw it all come to a head when pragosian decided you know to storm towards Moscow I do believe that this was planned months in advance and executed in a professional Style okay so pragosian he's the head of this Wagner group he has since turned up in Belarus hasn't he because the president of Belarus Alexander

lukashenko has confirmed that since our first round of talks lasted about 30 minutes and we talked mostly in swear words yes and I frankly don't believe the whole story that he will go to Belarus and and basically live in Exile because uh Minsky's identical to Moscow he is at risk in Belarus as he's at risk inside of Russia the chatter as I put in is looking

to eliminate him [Music] president lukashenko he was or he says he was vital in stopping this Mutiny I suggested to Putin not to hurry I said let us talk to progosian and his commanders he replied look Alexander it's useless he won't even pick up the phone and doesn't want to speak to nobody I said a bad piece is better than any War do not hurry I

will try to contact him what's he had to say again I frankly do not believe that story because anyone who has watched Lucas and go over the past you know a few years particularly since 2019 he has been literally the puppet of the Kremlin but it's very it's not plausible just like it's not plausible that you know the Wagner rights and provision are going to move

their forces into Belarus hmm it's hard to get a clear reading of exactly what's going on Vladimir Putin he has spoken as well he's spoken a televised address to the nation after this attempted coup yeah and then again to Russian troops what's his message about all of this well it's very interesting because in the you know since uh Putin came to power he has never lost

his call he's always controlled the narrative inside the country that was the first time that you actually saw him you know in fear the organizers betrayed their country their people and even those who were drawn into their crime basically he issued a very strong statement against pregosian and and against the Wagner race without naming um Wagner or uh pagosian but clearly we knew who he was

referring to call them traitors and then you know they will be prosecuted for reason now he's basically trying to whitewash what happened and that actually infuriated all the propagandists I mean they were livid the comments that were coming out from very influential military bloggers who you know each have a million plus followers they were enraged with the fact that this was put in speech and that

basically they were like you might as well not have come and delivered anything okay so in this address to troops President Putin also thanked the Russian military and security forces for preventing what he said would have been a Civil War what about pregosian what's he had to say because he did release an audio statement so he released an audio statement basically again you know showing that

this is far from over because he made a you know Digs at the Russian Ministry of Defense continues to be critical well this is far from over and as far as putting Putin addressing the military you know he clearly realizes if anything um these events over the past weekend showed Putin very well that he does not know who he can trust within his Security Services Ministry

of defense and intelligence Services because you had these Columns of Tanks driving through cities taking over one of the most strategic and important military headquarters in the southern district in Augusto and then driving straight to practically 200 kilometers from Moscow and no one pretty much was stopping them except bulldozers and a few helicopters then the Wagner shut down so you know he right now himself is

worried and I think he's trying to show his loyalty to the military but he understands that it was the military and factions though within different agencies that allowed pragosian to go this far [Music] so Putin Olga he's clearly trying to paint this as something that he was always in control of and that he's still in complete control but you've said that you know this isn't over

yet so what threats could Putin face now oh this is the beginning of the end for a puddin now his uh and to power I believe is going to escalate because you know he showed his weakness he was in hiding as tanks were storming through Russian cities heading towards the heat of power we're going to continue seeing Putin unraveling his stability unraveling and Russia unraveling um

and I think it's going to escalate from here Anthony blink and the U.S Secretary of State he says the aborted Revolt really does expose the cracks in Putin's regime they've had to defend Moscow Russia's capital against mercenaries of Putin's on making uh you mentioned Russia unraveling and I can see in the UK Whitehall has issued a warning that we should prepare for the sudden collapse of

Russia what do you think it means by that I absolutely am in agreement with the Stephen because they've been documenting all the signs over the past several months and I absolutely believe it because look right now Putin over the past several months you have had pregosian Crossing Unthinkable lines um you have had the military bloggers Crossing Unthinkable lines in supporting progression and then you just have

all these different factions fighting with each other I mean over the past six months there has been practically a war between the chechens and the Russian Orthodox Nationals over a mosque that is supposed to be built inside of Moscow and then you have the chechens fighting with the Wagner rights you are going to have a lot of factions inside of Russia because it's a very vast

country with many minorities usually this is how it happens you see these fractions appear and then it swiftly escalates and then suddenly you find yourself with a collapsed rusher and then with Russia and historically it usually happens very quickly yeah right okay so as you mentioned Russia is a fragile multi-ethnic state so there's a lot of play there in your mind if the demise of Putin

comes how will it come about will there be a successful coup is there an uprising what's the most likely scenario in in your mind well the most likely scenario is it will come from within it's not going to be an uprising of the people or either be an uprising of militants or various factions or it just comes from his own um the people around him who

will take him out because the elite and the oligarchs and pretty much from everyone's surrounding Putin has real come to the you know realization that they will not have Ukraine and the Ukraine will win and with every month that goes by the West is providing more weapons Ukraine is getting stronger and they realize Odin is not going to fulfill his objective so they definitely only one

move to take him out and it'll be from inside either one of his agencies or it could be through progosian rules so we might see an act too okay but Olga even if Putin is gone even if he is removed from power and that is still a big if I suppose what sort of Russia will we have will it be a better Russia or do we

not really know I hate to say it but it definitely will not be a better Russia just for the fact that it's the security services who control the country the system needs to be broken and until that system of corruption and betrayal and you know and cruelty is broken anyone who has put at the Peace of the new Kremlin is not going to change the real

nature of what is happening inside [Music] researcher at the center for European policy analysis and a co-host of the Kremlin file podcast she's based in New York City according to U.S officials quoted in the New York Times at least one senior Russian general had Advanced knowledge of pregosian's plans this episode was produced by Veronica app app David Cody flint duxfield and Sam Dunn who also did

the mix our supervising producer is Steven Smiley I'm Sam Hawley to get in touch with the team email us on ABC News Daily at abc.net dot a u thanks for listening [Music] subscribe to listen to more free podcasts or download the ABC listen app and stream ad free [Music]